Environmental problem is attention degree becomes more and more serious, at the same time in the past two years a new word - El Nino also catches the public's view, with the purpose to all unknown take dialectical materialism theory consult the China Agricultural University PhD, and gives the following interpretation of uh uh Nino climate is Peru, Ecuador in the vicinity of the fishermen used to address an unusual weather phenomenon of noun. Mainly refers to the eastern and Central Pacific Ocean in the tropical sea water temperature anomaly continues to warm, so that the whole world climate model changes, resulting in some areas of drought and other regions too much rainfall. Simple understanding is that climate change is strange, the change is no law at all. The fertilizer of the various types of market to deduce an alternative to the El Nino phenomenon:

　　Urea, diammonium export reduction, the shipment of the goods under pressure

　　Both the urea and diammonium export tariff policy were the same this year last year, but so far this year export performance slightly thunder and heavy rain a little, according to Customs Statistics: urea 1-4 months of this year the total export volume 367.18 million tons, compared to 527.76 million tons over the same period last year reduced 3 into the left and right sides, and customs fold to $238.3 / ton, compared with last year the average price low 50 dollars / tons; and diammonium phosphate export market even more, this year 1-4 months, diammonium phosphate exports only 85.76 million tons, compared with the same period last year to reduce 40% decline in the prices of more than 60 U. S. dollars / ton. As the two major domestic fertilizer exports, compared with last year is as described under cold wave attack, most market pessimism is heavy. The market price make the enterprise transaction will reduce and stop to limit production enterprise began to increase, coupled with the amount of fertilizer zero plans to increase the influence of, a time of domestic eliminated excess capacity voice gradually increased, but whether plant size due to input time and costs are larger, at which companies not to the last moment will not withdraw from the market; and aggravate the diammonium market test, some manufacturers this year device has added several sets of, market supply the excess, coupled with this year, the international market demand not flourishing, diammonium cold aggravated, and last year formed significant differences in contrast.

　　Potassium chloride: contract in suspense, the sea change

　　According to the practice of the domestic market over the years, the annual amount of potash half rely on imports, and when it comes to potash fertilizer import contract is large, the hot topic of discussion, but this year it is not similar with the previous contract, the contract signed by the first domestic potash were signed in the first half of the year, and so far this year, potassium fertilizers. The contract time is still a mystery, Chinese Network Analyst Du Shuangjiang said the potash fertilizer factors may develop over time reversal potassium chloride Market Trends: first, the supplier has been cut from me to weaken the oversupply of contradictions; secondly, in addition to other markets outside of the transaction is China has been reduced but after all third, India; no longer Chinese may go ahead on the sustenance and foreign contract; fourth, with China's self-sufficiency rate continues to increase imports The status of the country will subsequently decline; fifth, the downturn in the stock market and Qinghai started to reduce the rate of poor; finally, the lack of confidence in the hands of the hands of limited inventory. Although there are many uncertainties, but the current stage of the big environment, the signing of the contract for the signing of potassium more strange.

　　Such as the overall market prices are in decline actually also does not calculate is a mystery, but individual varieties of fertilizer prices did not decline, such as phosphate in superphosphate and calcium magnesium phosphate most prices remain stable, and from the point of view of the detection data go volume was essentially flat with last year, and ammonium chloride is in the spring Market uncharacteristically prices soaring, from the figure can be seen ammonium chloride the maximum price space is 200 yuan / tons, the largest increase in nearly 50% the left and right sides, the market strange atmosphere increased.

　　To sum up the domestic policy frequent, and facing the international market competition gradually increase the intensity, some varieties has dropped in recent years, the minimum value, increasing fertilizer market is facing the test, as for the seed and fertilizer in the market in the latter part of the challenge is a butterfly or one's whereabouts is unknown. Now to talk about is still too premature to, at this stage both factory or dealer cautious operation is the best policy.