Into November, the domestic urea market ushered in the second round of price increases. Following the first round of urea in mid October rose sharply after the market has been in the middle and lower reaches of the mentality and the hands of the chips, the seller and the buyer of the active power of frequent conversion. In fact, prices continued to rise is not the factory's wanton speculation, but should be said to be forced to.

　　The rapid rise in coal prices, increased transportation costs, has made most of the production of urea enterprises no retreat. The factory collective shill, and ultimately stimulate to always maintain a wait-and-see attitude of dealers. At the downstream market chase means, but for the market and the conflict question mood inhibited the rise, high urea no single transaction, manufacturers into a stalemate. However, the low rate of urea enterprises resume production and logistics transportation cost increase open a stalemate, and the achievements of the second round of rallies.

　　Operating rate is still an important benchmark with the new single increase in urea high turnover, the main producing areas of the factory price has exceeded 1350 yuan (ton price, the same below), the actual transaction price reached 1320~1340 yuan. Contrast in early August, Shandong, Hebei, Shanxi, Henan factory price of 200~250 yuan has been rising, but the company is still difficult to get rid of losses. The reason is very simple, this period of time the domestic anthracite prices quietly raised about 300 yuan.

　　In other words, the current price increases and increase the cost of urea is not value, loss of the previous increase. This is the industry forecast prices will lead to large-scale urea production has been delayed, even some released urea enterprises have bounced production date". According to the China Nitrogen Fertilizer Industry Association survey statistics, in late October domestic urea enterprises overall operating rate of only 50%. As the downstream agricultural and industrial demand set off a new round of centralized procurement market, even the individual areas of panic buying price.

　　The logistics cost power of Urumqi Railway Bureau in October 11, 2016 released urea price adjustment notice "" on the four quarter of 2016 freight price strategy, about Xinjiang Railway Freight urea or 20%, preferential freight recovery since November 1st. However, from the recent understanding of the situation, the railway freight adjustment of the geographical scope of the expansion of the trend.

　　Since September the formal implementation of "transportation vehicle management regulations", "ultra limit order" makes urea automotive costs increased 20%~30%. A large number of logistics demand transfer from trucks to the railway wagon, tight, high pressure of rapid spread of shipment. In addition to Urumqi outside, Taiyuan Bureau, Xi'an Bureau, Zhengzhou bureau have been issued to cancel the pre railway transport preferential policies related documents. As to how to restore the freight when and how to adjust the next step of railway freight, are unknown. Although the increase in logistics costs to further push up the price of urea, but from the past experience, the cost will eventually be paid by the plant, which is on the loss of urea enterprises is undoubtedly worse.

　　Therefore, the recent domestic urea has two rounds of market prices, rose more than 250 yuan, but the increase rate is less than the price of coal and logistics costs, difficult to get rid of the plight of urea upside down. Downstream market recognized the price expectations, centralized procurement and winter storage just need to continue to rise in the near future to provide a driving force for urea.

　　In addition, whether it is coal or freight by the policy, and the most difficult to predict is the policy ", this is also the helpless. Early forced shut down coal mine, and the recent in the premise of ensuring safety can resume production policy; hand trucks and trains revealed after the autumn peak transportation policy or loose. No matter how the policy adjustment, urea start rate is still the focus of attention of the industry.