Into November, continued to rise in urea, ammonium and potassium also follow up, the gains have reached 100 yuan per month or more. The price of so fierce, manufacturers and distributors of some speculators have be taken by surprise, questioning, torpor of the supply and demand analysis of those who have. The previous from a more macro perspective to analyze, think this is a phenomenon of inflation, the short term will continue to rise, but when Rose Hand depends on the government to fight inflation means, on the one hand depends on the lower price increases affordability. Today, an important factor to be ignored by the author: the September 21st implementation of the limit order.
I view the development and Reform Commission of the freight data: 2015 road freight volume of 354.5 tons, 33.6 tons of railway traffic, the full year of road traffic is more than 10 times the railway. Implementation of load limit order, the original 40 tons cargo car can hold 32 tons, equivalent to the highway capacity decreased by 20% (considering idle capacity, actually not so large), increase the one that will cause the transportation fee, the one that will cause the shortage of the automotive vehicle, the one that will cause the large amount of supply to the railway wagon, causing tension and increase in freight.
Unfortunately, the current priority is to ensure the supply of electricity, as for the reason, you know, making a large number of the wagon was occupied by the coal transportation, coal flow and urea and potassium flow is consistent, this will cause the urea and potassium poor transportation, part of the capital source of fertilizer high inventory may, was forced to stop, and the demand of resources shortage, while the mainland factory raw material supply is difficult to guarantee, the resumption of production difficulties. It is understood that only a Northwest plant inventory of urea is as high as 400 thousand tons, according to this calculation, the regional market factory inventory should add up to more than 1 million tons, has formed a huge lake. If this part of the inventory can flow smoothly to the market, then the urea can rise?
Chinese has been increasing investment in railways, transportation problems, has been for many years now, I had simply assumed that the load limit was only the one-time price increases, but the fact is that the logistics and transport industry balance is broken, a serious shortage of regional capacity, the formation of a freight rail freight price cycle (though the highest price, but no harm than the wagon, the direct price of the larger, which brought to) continue to support prices, this may be the policy makers have not taken into account?
The current rise in fertilizer prices both factors of the return value, there are factors of reduced supply, there are also cost push factors, there are factors of inflation expectations, but to support the continued high, logistics factors contributed!
Before Paul coal did not complete the task, the regional tension capacity problem is difficult to alleviate, unless to adjust the policy, but in the short term, the price of the finished part of fertilizer varieties.
The government's strong intervention, often can quickly break the market deadlock, such as this year's supply side reform, this is the macro-control benefits, but regulation is often lagging behind, once behind, it will cause the market change radically. Development and Reform Commission has been aware of the problem, and continue to modify the control policy of coal. Reportedly, the new policy may take 330 working days to relax next spring warm end. The Commission is a "best effort", but the coal to Paul, an important part of the national economy and other industries, can not give up no matter. In the area of insufficient capacity, the development and Reform Commission is clearly powerless, so the transportation authorities are not the problem of regional capacity to respond to it? We will wait and see!