Coal as the main raw material for the production of urea, usually can be accounted for about 60% of the cost of urea, urea price fluctuations in coal prices is undoubtedly the barometer. Since mid November, prices appear loose, the industry is very sensitive, not from the individual enterprise to last week urea reduction that enterprises of coal price adjustment attention. This week, more and more enterprises urea after abandoning the very price, return to the ranks of promotion. But the majority of dealers have no choice before chase, at this time would not choose to drop by. In the face of the current high price of urea, the industry generally expect coal prices under control in coal prices down to the urea market a more reasonable price range. But in fact, the price of urea is not the coal one party said, the market supply and demand situation is also an important reference standard.
Coal prices have been halted
The second half of this year, coal prices continued to rise, the traditional urea process of raw material anthracite price nearly doubled. As of the end of August, compared with November, local areas anthracite prices rose even more than 500 yuan (ton price, the same below). The main reason is the cost of coal prices rose urea prices soared. But by the winter heating coal market demand, three quarter and fourth quarter tight coal shortage of railway transportation and other factors, the price rise is also reasonable.
However, the coal market was soon stopped by policy intervention. At the end of October, to ease the tight supply of coal in winter, avoid coal prices rising too fast, the NDRC and Coal Association of some enterprises release the first 276 working days of policy, part of the advanced production release, including Coal Co evaluation of advanced capacity 74 coal mines. With the release of production capacity, suppress coal measures quickly. Then the main requirements of large coal enterprises to take down the spot prices. Then there is the adjustment of railway transport capacity, increase the direction of traffic in Qinhuangdao, Qinhuangdao port coal stocks continue to increase. In the "combined" mediation, coal prices rose momentum is pressing.
In the process to suppress coal in the domestic coal market just to be eased, the northern winter heating coal purchase into the end, supply coal prices stabilized, turn speed. Some industry insiders estimate that the price of coal is difficult to return to the bottom of the price level, but the decline or will reach 150~200 yuan.
Urea supply is still tight
With the decline in coal prices, the market is bearish on urea. From last week, individual enterprises to lower prices, more and more companies this week to offer prices callback, indicating that the market mentality is changing. While coal prices or callback 200 yuan, let the industry panic. Some of the bystanders said, chase large agricultural companies buy Urea into the disk access man, and take the volume of new single market is slowing down. In fact, these large companies in the small amount of urea during the operation of a small number of "pick up", after all, has been to the terminal market. This part of agricultural company after digested most of the risk attitude, bargaining is more obvious.
It is understood that in the domestic production enterprises are in a urea coal down profit, even if the traditional craft enterprises is also visible and anthracite. So the majority of people believe that the rate of urea will be due to the rapid increase in coal prices. As a result, the market supply will be tight from urea to balance, or even excess. It is assumed that, urea enterprises have plans for the long-term supply of raw materials and their cost control, if the current urea rose market failed to stimulate the parking or production companies to resume production, the price of coal and urea prices "double down" neither. Because urea companies are not optimistic about the profit is expected. In other words, if the operating rate of urea in December remained at about 50%, the decline in coal prices will maximize the effects of reducing.
In addition, the domestic supply of natural gas to tight, Henan Zhongyuan Dahua, Chongqing Jian Feng, Hebei Cangzhou, Liaoning Huajin other gas based urea enterprises operating rate limited. From a light storage point of view, the situation is more common in the lower reaches of the dealer fertilizer, all around the market to maintain a low inventory.
To sum up, the market is still tight supply of urea is good as the support, the decline is not too large; however, some manufacturers and dealers are Paohuo mentality, or will exacerbate the market panic sell-off of urea.