In 2016 last month, diammonium market previews improved, at this stage of the domestic mainstream 64% diammonium factory price in 2050-2100 yuan / ton, the Yunnan Guizhou area is slightly lower. All the good, the price of diammonium finally issued a sound, Hubei recently said that due to the previous most second ammonium enterprises under orders more control, now even suspended orders have been issued, the market price of the sound, the market has improved, but in a recent news and current paranitroaniline red market adds a fire phosphate. Rumors that the eight conference led by the sky, will be held on December 15th in Guizhou, mainly around the limited production price, the sky will be led by 25%, expected by shutdowns in nearly two months, low operating rate of the regional balance to adjust the supply of the domestic market, is expected to increase to 200 yuan / ton! The author on this issue and related enterprises to hear diammonium conference will be held, but the magnitude is not known now. The industry can not help but have some doubts, early so many positive only diammonium rose 50-100 yuan / ton, now that limited production price, the possibility of rising prices high? View on the current situation, such as limiting prices probably will have increased, mainly in the following aspects:
First, for most domestic enterprises larger orders. The price of diammonium enterprises in this period, a large number of transactions. According to the feedback of the downstream market, Guizhou Kailin early sales a batch of 64% DAP, buyout station price 2250-2280 yuan / ton, to perform only a week or so, the tentative recovery in advance, such as late as the rumors of limited production, so now the transaction order will be forced to delay, and the number of Dachang expressed by the liquidity constraints. Even if the factory in accordance with the existing construction plan can barely reach the beginning of the development of the production target, that is to say at least in mid January next year before warehousing enterprises no pressure, at least the price to be stable.
Second, when the price of the abolition of preferential. Since last year, the tariff adjustment officials have maintained a silence, the new tariff also temporarily stranded, by fertilizer enterprises and railway freight free consultation has been adopted so far, because the preferential spatial extent is relatively large, this year winter storage were shipped Yunnan Guizhou Dachang train transport, but! Recently, fire transport tariff concessions will be canceled is increasing, according to Chinese fertilizer network statistics, the cancellation of tariff concessions to cancel all two time node: one is after December 31st, two next year after March 31st, the specific time is uncertain, but most industry that will be canceled, such as the cancellation will pull up fertilizer the arrival of the price of diammonium is no exception, based on this, some traders have started to purchase in advance, which is one reason why the price of diammonium.
Third, the soaring prices of raw materials. With sulfur price upward, it is reported that at this stage in the supply of a poor production of ammonium sulfate Sichuan enterprises, factories supply acid production situation is not good, so the price is also high sulfur, sulfur within one month from the original 600 yuan / ton slightly rising to now nearly 900 yuan / tons, up nearly 300 yuan / ton, if at the high price of sulfur, ammonia or so shocked that, recently China fertilizer network learned Yunnan ammonia storage price has risen to 3000 yuan / ton, compared with the previous growth of nearly 800 yuan / ton, and phosphorus ore prices remain stable, the cost of 64% diammonium rose from the previous month nearly 300 yuan / ton, but obviously at this stage did not reach the price of diammonium rose over the same period of raw materials, strong support efforts.
Fourth, the depreciation of the exchange rate, export is slightly better. The recent understanding of China 64% offshore prices diammonium has risen to 310 dollars / ton, owed a large supply of domestic factories, factory intention FOB price at $315-320 / ton, and the RMB exchange rate against the dollar has dropped to 6.9, the previous price to Hong Kong increased Xishou is relatively strong.
In addition, the downstream market has been gradually accepted the fact that the spirit of diammonium prices, do not buy or buy up mentality, whether the recent enquiry or the actual turnover over the period has increased, the production is likely to pull up the DAP but considering the price, the production plan, production may not reach the limit of publicity. The space is expected to rise 100-150 yuan / ton price remaining late diammonium.