In 2016 the market of liquid ammonia compared with the previous years are similar, according to the years of ammonia market trend, summarizes its characteristics: the price is valid only for the day. But on the influencing factors of ammonia market trend, this year compared to last year, slightly different, since last year to cancel the export tariffs, but exports to domestic ammonia market is not obvious, because the export volume of liquid ammonia is few, and transportation, distance and other factors, so the price especially influence of producing area is is not obvious. This year the price trend is mainly by the change of liquid ammonia, urea, environmental protection material, its stop inspection, transportation and other factors influence.
The fluctuation of liquid ammonia can be divided into the period of this year:
A weak market, the low price: 1-3 month, -10 in mid May the end of the month: This is a weak market, two stage ammonia prices low volatility, one reason is before and after the Spring Festival, in the downstream of ammonia enterprises operating rate is low, at the same time parts of high speed limit line, leading to ammonia factory shipments slowly and gradually increase pressure; the two is the spring the end of the downstream demand, fertilizer and other enterprises to reduce the amount of ammonia and ammonia receiving, enterprises operating level is still high, the stock continued to increase, manufacturers to ease the pressure, can only choose a sale.
The market pick up, prices rise: since the mid to late 3 to early May and early November: the first stage is rising due to ammonia enterprises operating rate is low, the urea market has improved, the downstream procurement volume of compound fertilizer enterprises increased significantly, ammonia supply tense; the second stage is the raw coal prices rose rapidly, ammonia manufacturers cost increase and in most parts of the country took turns to accept the environmental inspection, ammonia enterprises were forced to limit or ordered to stop production on the market of liquid ammonia supply was reduced, tight supply, significant gains, and larger gains.
The key factors affecting ammonia market:
One is the change of environmental protection, manufacturers operating rate of production. This year, environmental protection is still headlines topic ammonia enterprises, especially in the second half of the year, the relevant state departments to inspect the area turns, is the liquid ammonia enterprises to limit production gradually increased; in the end of November to early December period, the majority of provinces severe haze, high-speed road closures or limit line, ammonia bearing factory shipments, shipping limited ammonia inventories continue to increase; in addition, the downstream enterprises also subject to environmental impact test of ammonia, lead to lower operating rate, purchases not only the amount of ammonia and decreased. Due to changes in two aspects of operating rate, the price fluctuation of liquid ammonia.
Two fluctuations in the price of raw materials. One of the important reasons for this year to boost the ammonia skyrocketing prices of raw material is rising coal prices, the overall increase in most areas of the 300-400 yuan / ton or more, resulting in liquid ammonia and other coal as the raw material of chemical fertilizer enterprises increase the cost, raised the price, such as at the beginning of the November Hebei Shijiazhuang area factory acceptance ammonia turnover reference price of 1930 yuan / ton. With coal prices skyrocketing, as of the end of 11 has risen to 2380 yuan / ton, up 450 yuan / ton, also have different degrees of increase in other areas.
Three is the downstream demand. Both chemical and chemical fertilizer enterprises with total ammonia ratio of about 3:7, demand for chemical industry is not much, and the demand has been relatively stable; so focus on fertilizer business needs, including compound fertilizer, small nitrogenous fertilizer and phosphate fertilizer enterprises, is the main flow of liquid ammonia, environmental inspection stage chemical fertilizer enterprise production is limited, the off-season demand gap during the period, chemical fertilizer enterprises operating rate is not high, to reduce ammonia demand, increasing pressure on the stock, the price downward; conversely, season with a fertilizer fertilizer enterprises overtime production, operating rates remain high, the ammonia demand steady increase, at the same time does not rule out part of the liquid ammonia equipment disrepair and manufacturers temporary failure stop the situation, so the ammonia market supply, prices rise.
In general, there are many factors influencing ammonia price movements, of course including ammonia storage conditions are limited, so the liquid ammonia manufacturers price adjustment frequency higher prices, strong timeliness, need to integrate various factors to pricing is sensible, therefore summarizes the 2016 ammonia price still is: only available on the day.