In previous years to the end of the year, entered the compound fertilizer production, winter storage period, but this year almost all the dealers in wait-and-see. 45% chlorine based compound fertilizer mainstream tentative winter storage factory quoted price of 1700 ~ 1850 yuan (ton price), the price of the plant price of sulfur compound fertilizer from 1900 to 2100 yuan. Industry insiders believe that the compound fertilizer raw materials bullish atmosphere, environmental inspection and transportation pressure plus the late start rate may decline, expected short-term price of compound fertilizer winter storage still have upside potential, but the price rise is not big.
It is understood that at the beginning of December, the second batch of the central environmental protection supervision work has already started, Hebei, Henan, Hubei and other places are inspectors operating rate of the device fell significantly, overall operating rate of 57%.
Hubei is the main producing area of compound fertilizer, accounting for about 15% of the country's total output. In general, the December winter reserve fertilizer season, compound fertilizer enterprises for the protection of the spring with the fertilizer, high load operation device. But this year, the main business equipment load levels decline in varying degrees, many companies even complete parking equipment." Hubei Provincial Commission by letter of the heavy chemical industry researcher Deng Zhongming said, not only Hubei compound fertilizer production is blocked, there are other parts of large enterprises have been exposed due to environmental reasons, is not up to the requirements of environmental protection of the small and medium enterprises have parking industry overall operating rate fell.
In addition, the recent severe air pollution in some areas, and more to start the emergency response. Hebei, Henan and other places where the compound fertilizer companies lack of equipment, part of the business park, the late driving time to be determined, the amount of finished goods inventory is not large.
Not only that, affected by the tight supply of raw materials transport, blocked, compound fertilizer supply tight local enterprises await urgently necessary condition. Since September 21st, the provisions of the regulations on the management of highway vehicles in excess of transport vehicles, car freight increases, transportation costs increased by 30 to $60. After October, part of the Railway Bureau has also canceled the preferential rate of chemical fertilizer, rail freight rose.
This year, the environmental protection inspection and transportation pressure increased, giving the compound fertilizer company a brief respite and wait and see opportunities, but also for the late introduction of new winter offer and policy provides a preparation period." Henan, a general manager of agricultural science and Technology Co., Ltd. Wang Heng said, according to the current raw material market, the operating rate and transportation situation, the compound fertilizer offer still upside space.
Into December, rising raw material prices, compound fertilizer enterprises increased pressure on raw materials, the offer was significantly raised. However, the current low acceptance of the high price is not high, compound fertilizer winter storage receivables into a short cold winter, while the low operating rate eased the pressure on shipping.
"In order to ease the downstream distributors mood, fertilizer manufacturers use not pricing sales model, the implementation of interest payment, delivery, warehousing fee rebate subsidies and other preferential policies to encourage dealers to take goods. Considering the dealer before and after the Spring Festival transportation will be nervous, also have a small amount of replenishment will let fertilizer manufacturers regain confidence." Wang Jianguo, general manager of a fertilizer company in Shandong, said.
At present, most of the compound fertilizer enterprises still maintain a rational attitude, with the downstream demand and raw material prices, at any time to adjust the price of compound fertilizer winter. At the same time, the industry believes that the face of the recent disappearance of fertilizer prices, fertilizer enterprises should keep calm. After this period of adjustment, the compound fertilizer market gradually into the digestive phase. Short term market is expected to continue to wait and see the atmosphere, the market or 'big stable small move'. Except for some low-end price Buzhang, compound fertilizer or stabilize the mainstream price." Wang Jianguo said.
The industry believes that, with the increase of environmental protection, the rate of decline in the late start of the compound fertilizer. Grain price is low, the downstream mentality not scattered, some raw materials prices rose sharply and is closely related to the policy, in the chaos of the market, dealers should remain rational, do not blindly chase.