Last week (December 26th -12 months 30), the urea market operating rate remained low, the abolition of tariff policy dividend release, the price continued to rise for 13 weeks. In January 3rd, China urea wholesale price index (CNPI) for 1685.80 points, up 31.69 points, or 1.92%; rose 129.01 points, or 8.29%; than the period fell 177.45 points, or 9.52%; China urea retail price index (CNRI) for 1769.38 points, up 56.73 points, up 3.31% year-on-year; rose 86.51 points, or 5.14%; than the period fell 135.58 points, or 7.12%.
Supply: last week, the environmental situation is still grim, urea enterprises operating rate remained low. Among them, the domestic urea enterprises overall operating rate remained at around 49%, the head of the enterprise operating rate remained at around 30%. Last week the fertilizer export tariffs canceled after the announcement, urea enterprises long-term losses immediately snatch dividend policy, coupled with the low operating rate of urea supply is tight, prices soared nearly 100 yuan / ton. Coal market, due to heating and methanol production support, prices remain high; synthetic ammonia, shipping situation has improved, prices rose slightly.
Demand: Recently, the domestic agricultural overall demand; industry, compound fertilizer enterprises still have a week to lack of capacity constraints, potash and other part of the purchase of raw materials, compound fertilizer product shipments blocked, and the environmental protection pressure, by-product hydrochloric acid of compound fertilizer increased inventory, operating rates remain low, weak demand for urea exports; last week, in the end to put temporary slow, exports less.
International market: international aspects of the New Year approaching, the slowdown in investment, price stability. Among them, the Baltic small particles urea FOB to maintain at 213-220 U.S. dollars / ton; Black Sea small particles urea FOB to maintain at 232-240 U.S. dollars / ton, China's small particles of urea to remain at $230-235 / ton.
Various regions: last week, the domestic urea prices in various regions. Including Beijing, Tianjin, Shanxi, Shanghai, Jiangsu, Anhui, Fujian, Shandong, Henan, Hubei, Guangdong, Guangxi, Chongqing, Sichuan, Shaanxi, Xinjiang and other places of urea wholesale and retail prices rose 5-150 yuan / ton. Hunan and Yunnan urea wholesale and retail prices fell 40 yuan / ton and 25 yuan / ton, the price remained steady rest.
In recent years, there is no basic domestic demand for urea; industrial, compound fertilizer production and sales process is blocked, the demand for urea showed a weak trend; international trading slowdown. Supply side urea operating rate continued to remain low, less supply. To sum up, in the high prices of raw materials support, it is expected that the recent urea market will be stable or slightly higher, need to pay attention to the environmental protection policy and coal price changes.