After the temperature rise slowly, local farmers after the extension, part of the industrial plywood factory because of environmental protection check again to stop or limit production, and compound fertilizer enterprises years ago, procurement of raw materials can be, there is no plan to purchase large quantities of urea; and fire operation recovery faster than expected, the Shanxi Inner Mongolia Xinjiang cheap goods flooded the market in different regions of urea. The demand is not started, but greatly increased supply situation, the overall market has not reached the expected urea continues to rise, began to come down significantly. At the same time, low food prices largely affected the enthusiasm of the grass-roots farmers in the upstream, urea price instability, the downstream plant structure will be changed under the condition that the dealer in a dilemma, I do not know how to prepare fertilizer, only to wait.
We first look at the recent price of urea fertilizer situation, China network data show that, as compared to the current Shandong part of a bid in the peak rate of 100 yuan / ton, and individual enterprises due to industrial and agricultural demand increased slightly again price increase over the next 3 months late will usher in the Central East and other places with concentrated green wheat fertilizer, Northeast China will also begin to crop base fertilizer 51%, then the short-term price of urea will rise again? When should the dealer purchase urea?
It is known that urea starts in July last year that began continued to remain low, except for a small amount of exports and industrial procurement, market urea margin should be no more, and the industry operating rate rose slowly, until now, the urea operating rate is only about 58.3%, and the NPC and CPPCC soon, environmental protection inspection or stop Recovery started again the rate of demand started to spring, according to common sense, briefly appearing on the market supply shortage of urea should be relatively normal.
But the small Cui Chinese fertilizer found in the investigation of the grassroots dealer market after the removal of the rigid demand caused by the agricultural planting structure will be changed to reduce the situation, because of continued high prices of urea, Shandong rivers and other distributors purchase low content of the new nitrogen fertilizer or ammonium chloride extrusion particles instead of urea is many, as dealers the words "at present Shandong ammonium chloride (dry ammonium) from the wholesale price is only about 700-730 yuan / ton, two tons of urea prices are not expensive, and now the grain price is so low, of course, farmers are more willing to choose some economic benefits of fertilizer, in addition, sales of these new nitrogen is relatively good, the key is selling a bag of new fertilizer can earn 10 yuan, and sell a bag of urea to earn 1 dollars less people buy, farmers are afraid to really get to the time of fertilization will fall".
A large number of goods and the major agricultural urea company years ago although the low price has not yet reached the level of farmers, but has been basically sold to more dealers, the market urea gap is not that big.
Then we'll have a chat export, after the Spring Festival holiday, originally continued upward international urea market reference price has continued to decline for three weeks, the price of New Orleans offshore barge large granular urea has fallen to about US $15-24 / ton 219-235 dollars / tons, China's urea granules offshore reference price also fell 15-23 dollars / ton to $235-255 / ton. Our concern India tender or because of its large domestic urea allowance (end January on the occasion of 1 million 460 thousand tons, compared with the end of January 2016 1 million 60 thousand tons increase) and the international urea prices still showed a downward trend and continue to delay. The other China Qingdao Yantai and other major ports of urea to Hong Kong quoted at 1650-1680 yuan / ton (excluding freight, a priced lower than the current Shandong River mainstream transaction factory 1590-1630 yuan / ton), were also slightly low, and China's Hong Kong Deposit total urea increased to about 1 million 300 thousand tons, the export side temporarily is bad.
In summary, the possibility of short-term China's urea prices continued to rise should not, since wait so long, so do not need preparation fertilizer in this time, and transportation also returned to normal, Inner Mongolia three companies and a factory in Guizhou will resume production, fertilizer panic basically no longer considered, so we must take the dealer for the bench or on demand only a small amount of purchase urea spot, is perhaps the next will lower the price of urea.