"Yinianzhiji is spring, spring is a beautiful season of rebirth, compound fertilizer market ushered in the spring of good omen. First of all, part of compound fertilizer enterprises in the Lantern Festival before and after the price increase, the continuation of "Rose City"; secondly, compound fertilizer production started within a short period of rapid increase, the backlog of orders in advance years ago rapidly deliver; finally, the spring Market DAP enterprises to take the initiative to limit production, prices continued to increase, the indirect response of compound fertilizer prices. Then, in March, when the spring, the composite fertilizer market is able to quickly start, the industry is both worried and look forward to, according to the current relevant market signs make bold predictions.
Environmental inspection start again
According to market survey, winter wheat in most areas around the corner, the habit of using high nitrogen compound fertilizer, and years ago limited production, some enterprises in order has not been fully realized, the volume of grassroots co.. Today, environmental protection inspection again, from February 15th to March 15th, the Ministry of environmental protection will be with the relevant provinces, to Beijing, Tianjin and surrounding 18 cities, to carry out the first quarter of 2017, a special inspection of air quality. Back in 2016 the winter market environmental supervision group unannounced visits, limited production of phosphate fertilizer enterprises, greatly improve the price rise; small compound fertilizer enterprises long-term shut down, to purge the market. The environmental protection inspection involved areas for compound fertilizer production areas, some enterprises limited production become predictable reality. Two rivers area enterprises said, "during the Spring Festival, the normal production, has been part of the stock, it is still difficult to meet the needs of shipping orders in advance."
Farmers income is less, the purchase of fertilizer is difficult to enhance the enthusiasm
Domestic demand is shrinking. At present, the purchase price of corn in Shandong area is only about 0.8 yuan / kg, an increase of about $11.11% last year, while about the basic level of farmers into the corn has not yet been sold. The market downturn situation, grassroots farmers once reduced to planting income confidence value, three kinds of steering will be more obvious, a farmer to cheaper alternatives such as urea, diammonium phosphate fertilizer, second kinds of farmers or direct reduction of the rate of compound fertilizer, third kinds of farmers or land. In any case, the compound fertilizer market demand has shrunk further. It is understood that the current market staff in compound fertilizer production enterprises have opened power distribution dealers, through incentives, rebates and other forms of delivery tasks to improve wholesalers and retailers delivery enthusiasm, by expanding the agricultural knowledge popularization, fertilization, scientific fertilization propaganda, strengthen the consciousness of reducing the demand for reducing the risk of fertilization.
The low-cost supply gap, small replenishment
According to market feedback, the grass roots stores spot volume in most areas is difficult to meet the demand for fertilizer in spring, mainly for the preliminary low supply, replenishment of small gap. At the beginning of March, mainly in northern regions of winter wheat, winter storage parts have high nitrogen stock, short-term replenishment quantity or not; the south area of fruits and vegetables into the topdressing stage, but the southern light reserve fertilizer quantity is less, the majority of dealers did not advance stocking habits, therefore, the market started relatively fast. According to statistics, years ago, the majority of dealers by fertilizer plan has been to the expected follow-up into about 8, according to the sales situation, small restocking is common.
Weak cost support, the market price is weak
It is understood that the majority of corporate quotations have risen to expectations, 45%S (15-15-15) ex factory price of 2100-2250 yuan / ton, some high-end quotes rose to 2630 yuan / ton, almost close to the current market retail price. It is understood that the majority of the wholesale market price is still stuck in the winter, the eve of the reserve fat, it is difficult to match the current high quotation. From a cost perspective, the upstream urea topical narrow price adjustment, Shandong has a urea factory price down to 1630 yuan / ton, return to the end of December the price of the actual transaction price; P and K synchronization callback, almost equal to the price at the beginning of December, and now compared with compound fertilizer at the beginning of December price rose 100 yuan / ton. Therefore, the production cost of compound fertilizer enterprises to ease the pressure, the possibility of re quote is extremely small. Compound fertilizer is limited to the production process is long, the price is strong, therefore, in the short term, the possibility of compound fertilizer companies also declined. From the market perspective, the current wholesale price low the main reason is that the farmers has not yet started, the remaining part of low-cost supply base, in the spring market started, low-cost supply constantly digestion, new supplies market, the wholesale price to rally is imperative, but gains limited.
All the signs indicate that the 2017 spring ploughing season fertilizer, compound fertilizer market "go15, dealers will pay more attention to distribution channels, retailers are more focused on the mobilization of farmers to purchase fertilizer enthusiasm, enterprises will go to find the supply and demand balance. In the near future, the compound fertilizer market is mainly based on waiting for the weather to pick up, and start with fertilizer demand. 3 months late, the compound fertilizer companies or for the development of the corresponding fertilizer sales policies, narrow adjustment or into the foreseeable future.