Recently, China's potash imports big contract talks once again become the focus of public opinion in the industry. According to sources, the 2017 annual contract negotiations have been officially launched in the middle of this month.
Domestic production growth balance of supply and demand narrowed
2017 domestic potash fertilizer production capacity will continue to grow steadily." Zhou said that the potash plant with resources and technical advantages, there are plans to expand production before 2018. Among them, the Saline Lake group plans to expand production to 6 million tons, Tibet Potash Corp plans to expand production to 2 million tons, Luo Luo, Xinjiang plans to expand the production of the company to the amount of 1 million 800 thousand tons, is expected in 2017 the new production capacity of about 700 thousand tons. In addition, due to the market downturn, the price close to the cost line and the tightening of funds in 2016, part of Qinghai small factory production out of the market; another part of the enterprise resource integration, this part of the production capacity will remain unchanged; in 2017 is expected to exit potash production capacity of about 100 thousand tons of -20.
"The possibility of 2017 potash market rebound sharply less during the spring, price stability, the stability of potassium chloride Anxiang, expected annual overall price is still hovering in the low." Zhou Yue believes that the reason is a low price of potash fertilizer prices of agricultural products is low, farmers to invest in fertilizers decreased; on the other hand, the overall domestic potash fertilizer market is still pile up in excess of requirement, there are millions of tons of inventory, the short term is difficult to alleviate. At present, the domestic potash market prices fell to the level of ten years ago, continue to lower the space is limited, such as potassium chloride prices can rise to $2200 / ton, will bring some profit to the enterprise.
Talking about the future of domestic potash supply and demand situation, Zhou Yue believes that in 2016 domestic potash production increased, a substantial reduction in imports, supply year-on-year decline, the balance of supply and demand over the previous year in 2017 narrowed; such as large contract extension, potash fertilizer imports continued to decline, the balance of supply and demand will be further narrowed.
Enhance the power of industry development in many ways
It is understood that in 2015 the world's total reserves of potash proved 3 billion 849 million, Belarus, Canada, Russia, the total proven reserves of 23.5 tons, accounting for about 61% of the world. According to the existing national mining scale calculation, in 2015 the world's total reserves of potash resources for 94 years, China's reserves can be guaranteed by the basis of the past 60 years, and reserves can only be guaranteed for 9 years. Week told reporters: "potassium resource is very precious, limiting protection exploitation of high grade potassium resource development in Saline Lake, to meet our basic needs for minimum potash mining, should not blindly pursue the rapid development of large-scale."
In addition, Zhou Yue believes that in the foundation to guarantee the output of traditional potassium chloride, potassium sulfate and other products, should focus on the development of fertilizer potassium magnesium fertilizer, potassium nitrate, potassium dihydrogen phosphate in different specifications, at the same time, the development of efficient and environmentally friendly fertilizer; development in potassium, contains a variety of elements and organic fertilizer, all elements water soluble fertilizer containing potassium alkaline and the development of multi element mineral fertilizer.
In recent years, potash poor circulation lead to local structural fertilizer shortages have occurred, especially in the winter with fertilizer during the peak period of this situation is most obvious in 2016, supply shortages resulting in the fourth quarter of potash prices soaring. Week said that since the "super ordering" after the introduction of a large number of sources of return from the highway railway, seasonal transport peak coal, grain and other bulk cargo, rail capacity further exacerbated tensions. She suggested the inclusion of potash fertilizer, including priority to protect the railway transport capacity of the goods directory, in particular, to protect the Qinghai, Xinjiang and other potash production enterprises focus, railway transport difficulties in the area of railway transport capacity. Secondly, it is recommended that China Railway Corporation to allow these areas of the railway sector in accordance with the actual situation of the market to develop flexible tariff rates.
In recent years, China's potash enterprises to accelerate the pace of overseas potash. However, at present, there are many problems in the development of potassium resources in our country, such as many projects, large investment, small scale and slow progress. As of the end of 2016, China's enterprises in 11 countries for the development of potassium resources, the amount of investment of nearly $3 billion, a total of nearly 30 projects, planning a total capacity of nearly 20 million tons. In addition to the formation of 1 million tons of capacity in Laos, the rest of the project is basically in the exploration phase or construction preparation period. In this regard, Zhou proposed 3 suggestions: first, the government to strengthen top-level design, the development of long-term planning and strategy. Secondly, enterprises should fully understand the international market, and gradually improve their overall strength. Third, the focus on the development of regions and enterprises, the government to give key support.