Into late July, most of the country's urea market has shown decline. This week will be the beginning of the fall in the price of urea in most parts of the country, but the decline is not yet clear.
Peak season hard to maintain
With good early traditional agricultural season, Hebei, Shandong, Henan and other northern regional manufacturers again test the price of urea, urea mainstream factory price generally at 1600 yuan (ton price, the same below), significantly higher than the same period last year the main producing areas of 1200 yuan of ex factory price. The industry generally attributed it to the first half of the urea production. This year, 1~5 months, the domestic total output of 24 million 989 thousand tons of urea (bureau of Statistics), down 19.7%, production of about 6 million 136 thousand tons. However, "goods tight, no price Yang."". After the agricultural market started in July, Shandong, Hebei, Henan and other places have feedback, the supply of goods is tight, and the price of urea has been raised continuously.
The export side, in 2017 1 to May exports 2 million 937 thousand and 800 tons of urea, 4 million 336 thousand and 100 tons compared with the same period last year, a decrease of 32.2%; severe cuts in industrial rubber industry urea demand, a quarter by the environmental impact of the policy, the two quarter of the real estate regulation, plywood industry worrying situation, roughly to the annual consumption of 8 million tons of urea gel plate calculation, 1 ~ May the amount of urea decreased about 1 million 700 thousand tons. Urea production and demand reduction offset, in the off-season of traditional agricultural demand, urea prices showed concussion downward trend.
Rainfall accelerated market end
In July this year, the agricultural market season is out, but because of the successive rounds of scale rainfall, are expected to demand after July 20th early release. Because the demand for agriculture has been concentrated, supplies from Shandong, Hebei, Henan and other places have been strained, pushing urea prices to a high point before July 10th. Subsequently, the industry is expected to increase the risk of high prices of urea, the vast majority of dealers in the lower reaches of the choice of short-term operations, with the "out".
From factory feedback, new single sales have slowed down. At present, only about 60% of the operating rate is considered, the supply situation is not optimistic, bidding promotions are expected. Recently, the author from the primary dealers learned that Shandong, Hebei, Shanxi and other places of urea ex factory price has a significant drop of 10 to 20 yuan, 40 ~ 50 yuan promotional anxiang.
Coal costs difficult to support
Market demand has been bearish, and the industry has shifted its sights to the cost side. Since July 1st, the two national import port banned the import of coal ship berthing at Zhuhai, Gaolan Port, Huadian Kemen port, Ningde port and other ports along the coast of Datang import ban. Judging from the trend of coal prices this year, the two quarter coal decline in the off-season has been effectively controlled.
As early as in early May, "on the" 2017 summer peaks during the coal oil and gas transportation support work, "the notice has revealed that the state to strengthen the deployment of coal resources, the stability of the domestic coal prices taste. To be sure, the two or three quarter of this year, domestic coal prices by policy support, has been difficult to decline sharply. In other words, in the off-season demand, the cost of urea support is not strong, urea prices may continue to seriously upside down, the industry starts to continue to fall to about 50%, may be supported by cost. In other words, it's hard to think of coal costs as a good price or even a boost.
Considering the end of July to early August the production of compound fertilizer enterprises will fall fertilizer urea high stocking, whether can be accepted by the market remains to be seen. From the cost, operating rate, market demand and other angles, in late July, the price of urea may fall below 1500 yuan, 1400~1450 yuan will be regarded as the mainstream cost line, and in August the market will experience upside down and parking test.