Recently, the fertilizer industry mentioned a number of times, not urea, potash, nor ammonium chloride, but an increase of ammonium concern...... Some traders suspended purchases of potash fertilizer and urea and turned their attention to ammonium. It's not surprising that everyone's attention to ammonium is rising, and it's true that the ammonium has reached the fire. Autumn is the high P home court became a raw material, ammonium priority among priorities, at present Hubei area 55% powdery ammonium mainstream factory price 1850 yuan / ton, that individual manufacturers have risen to 1870 yuan / ton, Shandong acceptance of storage at 1950 yuan / ton, enterprises suspended orders or small ground single, basically no inventory, spot supply.
The above depicts an "ammonium faction" boom, and now the market situation, an ammonium is indeed likely to continue to rise, but how long the price can persist, there are still several factors to consider the following factors:
First, compound fertilizer enterprises to purchase an amount of ammonium when can reach saturation?
The author and around the large compound fertilizer enterprises related to communication, from their mouth since the beginning of the end of May the major compound fertilizer enterprises in the stage of procurement at the same time as the fall of fertilizer production ready, although did not appear in advance, centralized procurement peak, but also for the enterprise in a step by step to reserve ammonium, including purchasing according to the number of orders, Shandong Dachang June ammonium procurement amounted to 100 thousand tons, other enterprises procurement plan is more than 10000 tons, some traders also caused a stampede in the procurement of ammonium, ammonium to the spot. In fact, this is a good bad half of ammonium fertilizer from a real autumn and a period of time, raw material procurement in advance make a season earlier ammonium demand has been released, there are companies that fall in the inventory of raw materials reached 2/3, the procurement should be based. Although there are small and medium-sized enterprises to join the purchasing forces, but when the real fertilizer, ammonium prices are also some people worried. At present, some of the ammonium enterprises orders to close until mid August, after the order of good or bad, and compound fertilizer enterprises to purchase an amount of ammonium, when it can reach saturation, but also depends on the sales of compound fertilizer.
Two, when will the enterprise's own operating rate rise?
This problem is divided into two reasons to analyze: 1, the enterprise itself device operation. Now Hubei enterprises operating rate of ammonium into about 6, to remove part of enterprise because of capital turnover, boilers and other issues are still in production, with production plan recently, other companies are in production, unlike in previous years this year is part of the enterprise according to their own demands for proper device to other content a or stop a high content of ammonium ammonium unit in the off-season, instead of the usual blindly production, inventory, make the enterprises fall into a passive. 2, the impact of environmental inspection on the operation rate of ammonium. To carry out environmental inspection in Guizhou in early, because the enterprise of phosphogypsum processing enterprises to limit production shutdown for a long time, causing a backlog of orders for more, at present in the main drive for outgoing orders; Sichuan area will be the real central environmental inspectors, the province inspection was removed a few months, more or less of a enterprise started ammonium impact, heard the central environmental protection groups of inspectors have been settled in Sichuan city in Sichuan province is an individual, a phosphorus resource, phosphogypsum processing problems is also a priority among priorities, Guizhou inspection, Sichuan City, is expected to start rate will decline. In summary, the recent part of production enterprises with production plan, and how much environmental pressure will make some enterprises have ceased to limit production, coupled with a version of the 6+2 conference held ammonium monthly "bring good atmosphere, a short term operating rate ammonium should not have greatly improved.
To sum up, the above two factors, one ammonium does have the possibility to continue to rise, but considering the compound fertilizer enterprises and traders have a certain large inventory of ammonium, late worrying, really fat when there is a "to order" hates few when the sad.