Mention of urea market recently, is nothing more than Chuzhi as a week Shandong Dachang three days factory price down 100 yuan / ton; Linyi goods prices continue to decline to only about 1470 yuan / ton; Henan Dachang perform pre fed marketing orders for old customers, only 1410 yuan / ton factory etc.. The market weakness continues, prices continued to fall, the downstream is not very optimistic about the introduction of enterprise marketing and the buyout price fed policy. Indeed, on the current market supply and demand and downstream mentality, the price of urea still has further room for decline.
The environmental inspection team is definitely a good chess game, the real will be a urea enterprise army. Although autumn fertilizer for the raw material of urea pull is not large, but it is the main flow of urea enterprises fall, but the downstream retail urea on-demand procurement and the next part of the dealer's light storage operation brings side support price. Compound fertilizer greatly reduced production, urea had to continue to bottom, and continue to face cost pressures.
The cost or can cause the industry operating rate decline, to a certain extent, however, since nearly a year of urea enterprises many profitable, so even at a loss in the short term, enterprises should be more reluctant to give up the market, the production will persist for some time, and in the premise of weak demand, the price war is more intense. Then, the port should be the next escape route for the urea enterprises to reduce the stock pressure.
China fertilizer network data show that at present in China, Yantai and other major ports of the total Hong Kong stock approximately 442 thousand tons of urea, can be said to be reached the lowest level in nearly two years, although exports are still bearish dominate, but China's small granular urea export guide price of US $224-228 / ton FOB, although higher than the Baltic Sea the sea of small particles urea offshore guide price 193-199 USD / ton, although still unable to clinch a deal, but the Black Sea / Baltic Sea, the Middle East, Egypt and the United States, prices continue to rise, in addition to India on the occasion of the July 31st balance inventory of nearly 1 million 440 thousand tons of urea, 1 million 760 thousand tons compared to the same period in 2016 declined 8 during the second half of India may be held new urea bidding. Visible, a certain period of time, China's urea or can carry out a small amount of export.
But even if it failed to export urea group, then the domestic urea prices rebound or return again, especially shipping costs are relatively lower fire trucks, transport, such as Yunnan Guizhou and Guangdong and Guangxi high market demand will also appear, can be sent to the shipping market. This not only reduces the stock pressure, but also makes the sales method more flexible. Of course, this requires a certain courage such as urea, urea will be sent to the port, the market price is still further down, and can not be exported, then perhaps enterprises and foreign trade companies will be the loss of more storage and interest expenses.
The port in the sharing of urea enterprises pressure and kept the risk at the same time, in the case of more urea production capacity, taking into account the cost factor, then the competitiveness of China's urea in the international arena will continue to weaken, export no more positive expectations, so the next port of urea will continue to return the domestic market, then will be restricted to a certain extent when the price of urea.
Also recently heard part of compound fertilizer enterprises said urea slightly stabilized signs, but learned from the market, the downstream demand and the overall supply of urea is basically no big change, small Cui think maybe only a few urea enterprises due to face cost pressures and conflicts reflect the price and short, fancy downstream who actually not lived. Downstream face great pressure on environmental protection, the market has no big demand to support the price of urea, most urea companies temporarily have no time to consider coal and other costs, shipments or the first priority, it seems feasible to send ports.