Last week, the price of urea continued to rise, and tight supply in August was expected to continue until September, prompting traders to buy at higher prices in case of short selling.
Many buyers believe high prices will last for some time, especially in Brazil. According to traders feedback transaction information, North Africa's FOB price of 225 U. S. dollars (ton price, the same below), Arabia port FOB 214 U. S. dollars, while the Baltic small particles of urea in the offshore price of more than 200 U. S. dollars.
At present, Egyptian suppliers expect only about 50 thousand tons of urea for export in September.
The main market for pushing prices up is in the western hemisphere. The Brazil market was very active in August and September, and traders purchased Egyptian urea supplies for Turkey and the European market. Due to the lack of imported products, FOB port America rose to 203 U.S. dollars / ton, while the second half of the 9 price higher.
Buyers in other markets will also enter the market, with the aim of completing the purchase before further price increases. If prices continue to rise, Brazil and Turkey (Europe) will continue to purchase.
There will also be a short-term supply from the market in Algeria, and the debate over the AOA has resulted in a restart of Arzew's production line. But the market did not catch the recovery line because it was uncertain whether the line would be restored or how much capacity was restored.
In the eastern hemisphere, India plans to launch its next round of tender ahead of from August 14th to 15th to supply the September market. Kaltim, the Indonesian producer, has announced to its contract holders that it will suspend the export of large granule urea because of a production line outage. Since last week, China's big particle urea supplier has raised its price by $5~10, and this round of price increases will make suppliers profitable.
Excessive price increases may also bring buyers out of the market. From August to September, the supply of urea is tight and the price is expected to rise in the future.