At present, it is in the off-season, but the price of chemical fertilizer is not rising, especially the price of urea is rising rapidly. At present, Shandong, Henan, Hebei and other mainstream factory price of urea has been fully breaking the 1700 yuan (ton price, the same below) mark, heading to 1800 yuan, a year prices high, the market wholesale price of urea has more than 1900 yuan; others such as ammonium, ammonium phosphate, potassium sulfate, ammonium chloride, compound fertilizer price etc. are also on the rise, growth in 50 ~ 200 yuan.

Rising fertilizer prices in the off-season this year, in addition to environmental inspection, equipment operating rate is not high, rising coal prices lead to higher costs, the international fertilizer prices and other factors, there is an important reason, is affected by the trend of commodity. The first two quarters of 2017 Chinese GDP reached 6.9%, the economic data reflect the real economy demand and strong momentum, after August, a strong rise in commodity prices, steel price index rose 49.41%; Bohai thermal coal price index for the three consecutive period of accumulated 7 yuan upward, upward. According to monitoring, soda rose by 65.95%, caustic soda rose by 86.85%, methanol rose by 42.04%, hydrofluoric acid rose by 83.29%. Compared to the growth of these products, the price of fertilizer has been "gentle"".
And the trend of commodity differentiation, bullish bearish sentiment is very strong, high prices of steel, iron ore fell 22.5%. The latest PMI index of the manufacturing industry has added confidence to the market. According to the China purchasing managers index released by the National Bureau of statistics, in September, PMI was 52.4%, rising for two consecutive months, reaching its highest point since May 2012, with an increase of 0.7 and 2 percentage points respectively. In addition, a number of international organizations optimistic about the future of China's economic growth, raised expectations. The IMF recently raised China's economic growth forecast by 0.1 and 0.2 percentage points to 6.7% and 6.4%, respectively, and this is the third time the organization has raised China's economic growth forecast for 2017.
From the economic environment and commodity trend, fertilizer prices are still rising momentum, but taking into account the price of agricultural products and bring the fertilizer policy of zero growth in demand reduction, prices rise means that the greater the risk. The author thinks, at present is in the storage period of chemical fertilizer, dealers should put the risk in the first place, should not blindly chase high.