From around Jincheng enterprise production, the overall supply of urea is further reduced and the ideal, the Urea Export Market in China will be bidding India a large amount of Urea Export good support, the recent urea market pull up sentiment still strong, weeks since the beginning of the Shandong River mainstream factory price of urea and rose 40-85 yuan / ton, individual enterprises factory price increase of up to 120 yuan / ton. However, although there is good support from time to time the current price of urea, but the market may not be accustomed to continue to go high normal, mainly there are still many bad factors restricting the further rise in urea prices.

First, the downstream seems to be less receptive to higher urea prices. Understanding of the market, the downstream procurement is mainly industrial plants and plywood factory, due to nineteen held, the downstream industry purchasing moderate slowdown, otherwise fertilizer enterprises to prepare for the meeting and the downstream phosphate fertilizer light storage, but it is only a small amount, on-demand procurement; agricultural multi sidelines (part of Jiangsu and Anhui provinces of Hubei and Hunan with fertilizer by weather factors), and then extended except slightly large reserves a few dealers early no more inventory, most basic is still not large agricultural company procurement, although the reserve plan but there is also no more action, so for now, the domestic downstream demand slowdown.
Secondly, the bidding price of this round of India is higher than the previous one, but it is difficult to bring strong support to the domestic market. Sea freight prices, according to the east coast of the lowest bid price of 290.66 U.S. dollars / ton to Hong Kong price in China, Yantai and other major ports FOB price of about $275.5, the export rate of 6.6, excluding Hong Kong and other miscellaneous expenses, about 1760 yuan to the port, and then remove the freight and tax costs, for the Shandong River urea enterprises in 1750 yuan / ton or slightly higher general factory price support.
After the end of the nineteen, the operation rate of urea will rise again. As of now China urea industry started low to only about 47.78%, although market rumors, into the winter, environmental inspections should be high normal, even late in Jincheng surrounding urea enterprises gradually resume production, the production will be subject to certain restrictions, it is understood that before these enterprises have to order production, will continue to send away Jiangsu and Anhui Hubei and Hunan Guangdong and Guangxi market, and each of these enterprises are to a large number of low-cost orders and then according to the specific number of new single and appropriate price increases, so that these enterprises to resume production after a period of time, the local market price should be subject to certain impact. But some enterprises such as the production of urea in north area did not resume production, winter production difficulties increase, or will consider the resumption of production in February next year before, so as some enterprises in Xinjiang Inner Mongolia urea will be at the end of October or later and to resume production, the overall supply should be increased.
The most important point: the trend of coal price is uncertain. The premise of urea low operating rate, high coal prices rose again to bring strong support on the cost of urea, this can be said to be the main factors of the high price of urea first half of this year, along with other domestic and international good rising. The market has long been on the high coal prices may cause rumors of policy intervention, and because of frequent accidents, the overall supply of difficult to increase, coal is still tight prices yang. But there is news that the nineteen conference will discuss the supply and price of coal or other related policy related matters, or will be carried out after the end of the meeting, the NDRC also has a certain degree of compulsory adjustment of coal price expectations, in demand and cost facing double bad situation, which makes the low start, urea prices rise again should also have a resistance. But that's not sure yet.
In summary, the trend of the urea will be dominated by the change of coal prices, and then further adjustment will be made according to the recovery of the operating rate, the downstream storage and export. Such as coal prices, will certainly bring bearish on the price of urea at present, however, the current supply of urea is low, the majority of enterprises without sales pressure, urea prices fell sharply in the short term is expected to almost nothing, so only starting from the point of view of profitability, lower coal prices should be able to make urea enterprises obtain more profits. Even if the price of coal callback, it is difficult to achieve immediate results, this should be a long-term process.
In addition, India RCF company has basically completed the tender, and then the NFL company will also release a new round of urea goods bidding, on the recent export market, the probability of winning the bid is still large. Therefore, the high concern is the danger of urea should be, but for now, the enterprise can rise up should be the norm, the amount of operation should be optimal for dealers.