China has been known as the leading producer of international urea production. However, at present, raw materials, natural gas and coal supply are tight and the price is high. The low operating rate of the industry will continue for a period of time, which has become the established fact of the urea market at present. It can be said a few years ago, China's urea also rely on exports to ease pressure on sales, exports weakened exports in recent years, under the condition of small can maintain domestic supply and demand balance, so the policy on coal gas and environmental protection inspection effect will lead to continuous pressure or the overall domestic urea supply cannot satisfy the demand for the downstream, "urea shortage or imminent.

In fact, recently the tight supply situation has Chuxian clues. Since August, various stages and regions in urea prices compared with previous years are at a high level, the risk is difficult to rise from time to time fluctuations downstream of urea market outlook assessment, urea market in a time of most agricultural companies and dealers are in the same basic to deal with the status quo, so that the main market for the enterprises started under low urea downstream industry and a small amount of exports, the price also changes with the demand fluctuation; and with the advance of time, policy effects continue to limit the urea operating rate rise, especially this month, coal gas makes the operating rate significantly reduced urea again, and for a long time and is expected to be on the premise of Shandong two rivers after the Spring Festival in reviving the peak fertilizer stage, few inventory downstream agricultural dealers at all levels is obviously anxious to sign some agricultural company first time out Purchase plan, in the current situation of low supply of goods, striving to meet downstream needs and gain more profits, while urea enterprises are also unable to meet downstream demand because of the rapid increase of sales volume under low supply, and prices also rise.
Remove the agricultural company, primary dealers also understand the various factors affect the environmental inspection and other raw materials, urea supply is less, but taking into account the enthusiasm of farmers to grow in recent years and urea from space, most dealers still choose with safe method with mining. The majority of the dealers said, at present the relatively high price of urea, urea reserve funds used large profit space is small, but there are still some farmers' responses to the 2018 planting structure is difficult to determine, once again to avoid the phenomenon of loss, even when the most helpless guaranteed sales dealer friends still choose to use with the mining.
But then again, urea tight supply brings the price skyrocketing, driven by profit, enterprises want to increase the load of urea. Just now, a big factory in Hebei has been resumed production. The daily output is about 2800 tons. The load of a large factory in Anhui has increased by about 1100 tons / day, and another company that produces liquid ammonia is also preparing to produce urea. However, under the pressure of environmental protection and big policies such as heating in North China and other places, the recovery rate of urea will still remain at a low level in the short run. The problem of urea shortage will be difficult to solve.
Perhaps the import is to solve domestic urea supply tight spring may be the most effective way, recently heard of a trading company in Beijing has imported about 200 thousand tons of urea in Belarus, Iran and Oman, and a part of the goods have been sent to Guangdong and Guangxi market; in addition, a large U.S. trade company Chinese marketing department is investigating the market, the company said perhaps will also import a certain amount of urea to supply Chinese market. Of course, imported urea also restricted part of policy of our country, and there are many restrictions and fetters in the port trade, but if the spring agricultural demand is really difficult to meet, perhaps countries will also release the appropriate for the import of urea restrictions? But this is not known.
In summary, the "urea shortage" will be expected to come. In the previous analysis Xiaobian mentioned many times in recent years the price of urea is affected by the policy fluctuations, and this year the impact has been upgraded, while pushing up the price of urea enterprises should pay attention to whether because of the price sharply higher traders imported large quantities of urea and the impact of the domestic market; but to maintain dependence on grassroots farmers, should also be downstream try to avoid short operation while maintaining the rational reserve.