The conference of the economic operation of China's oil and chemical industry held in 2018 was held in Beijing, held by the China Petroleum and Chemical Industry Federation. The economic operation of the oil and chemical industry in 2017 and the forecast report of 2018 (hereinafter referred to as the report) were published. The report predicts that the overall level of fertilizer prices in 2018 will be roughly the same as that of last year. The price of nitrogen fertilizer will drop somewhat, and the price of phosphate fertilizer and potash fertilizer will increase slightly, and the price of compound fertilizer will basically remain stable.

The report predicts that the total amount of chemical fertilizer consumption in China will remain up and down at 56 million tons (pure) in 2018, roughly equal to that of the previous year. The export of chemical fertilizer may reproduce the growth momentum, but it will not be too large. According to the market situation and the characteristics of the price fluctuation for many years, the overall level of the fertilizer price in 2018 is roughly equal to that of the previous year. Among them, the price of nitrogen fertilizer declined, the phosphate fertilizer and potassium fertilizer rose slightly, and the compound fertilizer was basically stable. The average annual price of urea is 1660 yuan (ton price, the same below), down 1.1% compared with the same period last year, the average price of diammonium phosphate is about 2580 yuan, up 4%, the average price of domestic potassium chloride is 2050 yuan, up 4.5%, and the average price of sulfur based compound fertilizer (45%) is 2300 yuan, up 1.6%.

In 2017, China's chemical fertilizer market showed weak performance, but the price rebounded from the previous year, and the main varieties were rising and falling. Among them, nitrogen fertilizer (urea) rose relatively large, phosphate fertilizer and potassium fertilizer continued to decline, rose slightly.

The report points out that the cost of chemical fertilizer industry in China has risen rapidly in recent years, and the cost has become the most important factor to support the change in the price of the chemical fertilizer market. In 2016, the main income cost per 100 yuan in the chemical fertilizer industry exceeded 88 yuan, reaching 88.96 yuan, surpassing the basic chemical raw material manufacturing industry and leaping the first of the chemical industry. In 2017, the fertilizer industry's main revenue cost per 100 yuan up to 87.97 yuan, still topped. Among them, the main income cost per 100 yuan of nitrogen and phosphate fertilizer reached 90.42 yuan and 89.85 yuan, respectively.

In addition to the increase in cost, the decline in supply is also one of the characteristics of the fertilizer industry in 2017. The report shows that in 2017, the consumption of chemical fertilizer in the domestic market continued to decline, and the total amount of apparent consumption fell by about 1%. Among them, nitrogen fertilizer decreased by more than 10%, phosphate fertilizer was reduced by 1%, diammonium decreased by 2.5%, and potassium fertilizer increased by 4.6%. The quantity and amount of the export of chemical fertilizer continued to fall, and the decrease was 9.6% and 7.4% respectively. The continued weakness of exports has increased the pressure on the domestic market.

At present, the structural contradiction of China fertilizer market is still outstanding, such as urea, superphosphate, diammonium bulk consumption already close to the limit of chemical fertilizer products.

The report puts forward that the current adjustment of chemical fertilizer structure should conform to the trend of industrial adjustment such as agriculture, forestry and environmental protection. While improving the quality and efficiency of traditional bulk products, we should focus on developing differentiated, personalized and specialized new products to adapt to the development of high quality society.