The sound of firecrackers and the old words, plum blossoming spring. Today, with the gradual decline of "year's taste", people of all walks of life have begun a new year's journey. Fertilizer market, since last week, most enterprises have been officially opened for business. When preparing for the resumption of production, how to make the selling price of recent products has become a hot topic. As we all know, the 2017 compound fertilizer winter storage progress is particularly slow, the market stalemate is always difficult to break. After the holiday, the compound fertilizer market has not yet started, but the following factors should be combined.

First of all, raw materials. According to fertilizer network understanding, as of now, the Shandong area of urea mainstream factory price is 1950-2020 yuan (ton price, the same below), compared with the pre holiday, part of the mainstream factory price rose 20-50 yuan, Linyi goods price since before the holiday is about 1940-1960 yuan rose to 2010 yuan. Due to the continuous development of agricultural demand in various regions and the low start-up rate of the urea industry in the early stage, and a slight shortage of local market demand, coupled with the favorable support of India's new round of bidding, it is predicted that urea prices will still increase slightly in some areas in the short run. Affected by weak sulfur market and large inventory pressure, the price of ammonium will continue to decline, but demand pull will temporarily stop. Therefore, the price of raw materials under frequent fluctuation is still high, the cost pressure of the compound fertilizer enterprise still exists, and the price of the product is difficult to fall sharply.

Secondly, the demand side. This year's Spring Festival has been postponed from the previous year, and the festival atmosphere has gradually gone into the March. Most of the regions in China, especially in the north, usually have spring ploughing time during May 1 Labor Day. Spring is ploughing, and downstream demand is starting. Unlike previous years, spring in this region will be slightly more intense in spring this year. One reason is because the winter of last year the price of fertilizer is too high, the downstream distributors more cautious wait-and-see attitude, in the northeast area as an example, in addition to last fall, the majority of dealers ordered some of the low price of fertilizer, fertilizer prices rose after the winter is not too much to purchase, the overall demand is still a little gap; on the other hand in recent years of fertilizer price fluctuation is frequent, the market trend is difficult to grasp, Dongchu local habits gradually fade, to be used as base fertilizer dealers with mining sales phenomenon generally increased. Therefore, this year's spring ploughing will be more concentrated in the purchase of fertilizer, and the situation of the short "tight price of goods" may appear in the market.

Finally, the supply side. After the Spring Festival, the compound fertilizer enterprises were on the right track, and the production and sales links began to recover. Due to environmental inspection and natural gas supply and other factors, the start up rate of compound fertilizer enterprises in some areas has been at a low level before the Spring Festival. According to fertilizer network understanding, last week in some areas such as large lakes, Anhui compound fertilizer enterprises and Northeast China, the operating rate of only around 42%, and is expected in the short term will remain low in construction enterprises. One reason is because the local area north of the heating season is not over yet, the environmental situation is very severe, recently heard from Shandong local safety inspection of parking enterprises increased; on the other hand is due to pre orders are still part of the remaining part of the enterprise, but the new single gradually increased, the production pressure pre orders have not been executed will be increased, new there may be a single shipment delay. Therefore, influence of environmental protection and the production of fertilizer supply pressure or spring.

To sum up, the current price is not the spring fertilizer decline trend, but after some enterprises plan to introduce the corresponding preferential policies, such as the cascade play money rebates and freight subsidies, so that not only help enterprises to seize the market share in the spring, and to a certain extent, promoted the fertilizer market in an orderly manner. The high price of raw materials to fall, the downstream demand and supply situation is relatively concentrated to release tension and other factors may make short-term market slightly Chonggao fertilizer potential.