In promoting the Spring Festival after the first round of agricultural needs, domestic urea appeared a wave of rising prices, the majority of enterprises to offer Shanxi Jiangsu and Anhui was raised, or 20~100 yuan (ton price, the same below). But this market has lasted for only a week or so. Under the influence of many factors, such as weak agricultural demand, no industrial follow-up, continued export stagnation and rapid start up of industries, the market is showing a downward trend again. However, after a week or so of continuous decline, the market bottomed up. In March 8th, the new volume began to enlarge. In March 9th, the price of individual businesses rose slightly, and this trend is stronger in March 10th. So, what is the factor that makes the situation change?

Started to decline?

Is still a slight rebound. Data show that in March 11th the domestic urea output 145 thousand and 700 tons, the operating rate of 58.54%, compared with the beginning of March rose 2.5 percentage points less than the same period last year 9 thousand and 700 tons. The operating rate is still rising, pushing gas companies to resume production, due to individual coal enterprises started slightly minor repairs. Short term supply is sufficient, in the current weak demand situation, should not be good, market rebound is not from the impact of the start rate.

Inventory reduction?

If it is not for this reason. According to the statistics of 60 urea enterprises inventory, the stock volume in March 11th was 629 thousand tons, which did not change much compared with the previous week, which was only 10 thousand tons less than that in the first week after the Spring Festival, while it was at a relatively high level compared with the 430 thousand tons before the Spring Festival. However, many enterprises advance orders from 1 weeks or 10~15 days reduced to 2~5 days. The volume of the stock is not reduced, but the quantity of orders is reduced, and this is not a good support for the rebound.

Export situation better?

This not to mention. India tendering Iran goods source occupies the main position, and it has also increased the source of some accidents. Because the US urea demand has been delayed and the demand in other areas is limited, so the price gap continues to exist at home and abroad for a period of time, and the possibility of import is more than that of exports. Good is not export.

To start the market, the demand for the better?

The end of wheat reviving fertilizer, fertilizer is the next wave of Qingming before and after jointing stagetopdressing, as well as the northeast and northwest of China fertilizer demand, the amount will be significantly greater than the first round of agriculture, and the influence of the broader region.  However, the market has not yet started. This year's price is relatively high, the recent rapid decline in the market has also affected the mentality of the downstream, the agricultural market may be in the demand season close to restart.

Plywood factory started a slow recovery, compound fertilizer plant due to the high inventory, raw material price instability, sales general effect, urea purchasing enthusiasm is low. It is a bit far fetched to see the recovery of some industrial demand as a reason for reversing the market.

Why prices temporarily reverse?

Mentality better, restore confidence and I think, this factor accounted for a large part of the reason. Spring market did not appear as expected shortage situation, the psychological gap between the market parties is larger, once more empty. A number of meetings in recent days news or long-term supply and demand in a tight balance, the gap is still lingering in, but the market is good, after the extension, the mood began to loosen.

Look at the supply and demand is expected from the domestic market last year, inventory statistics and manufacturers, last summer with fertilizer after the market inventory is far lower than the level of previous years. This is an addition to the later supply side. Consider the difference of domestic supply (supply this year and last year, as of March this year, the difference between) the supply of 1 million 500 thousand tons compared to the same period last year to reduce. The demand is reduced in consideration of the reduction in the amount of fertilizer and the replacement of the same product. It is this expected benefit, restoring a lot of business confidence in the future. The business market stock market decline to suspend and rose.

But faith alone is not enough, a variety of supply and demand data is still a drag. In a comprehensive view, the effect of large granular urea is obviously greater than that of small particle urea, and the flow direction is mainly in the northeast, East China and North China. In the northeast, the growing season is less than 1 months, and the sudden reduction in the production of large granule urea is undoubtedly an important factor to promote the market market. It is expected that the small particle urea will follow up more, and the psychological effect is far greater than the effect of the fact. In this atmosphere, the rise in the market will continue. The next round of the next round of fertility season is still half a month, and the price has been raised again.