Nineteen report party for the first time made Chinese economy has grown from high speed to high quality development stage judgment, and the basic requirement to promote high quality development as the current and future periods to determine the development ideas, formulating economic policies and the implementation of macro-control on how this will affect the fertilizer industry.? I read from two aspects in the short - and medium - and long term.

Effect of short-term may have two: shut down a large number of exports of fertilizer decreased, the growth of imports and phosphate fertilizer enterprises, the main tool for the exchange rate policy and environmental protection.

Effect of on the import and export of chemical fertilizer

Recently continued appreciation of the RMB against the U.S. dollar, although there is a dollar soft, but I think this is one of the important Chinese arrangements to promote high quality development: the renminbi against the dollar, the direct effect is to reduce exports of low value-added products, imports increased low value-added products, which can not only better use the cheap resources, reduce trade friction, but also reduce the consumption of resources and environmental pollution, forced enterprises to promote economic transformation and upgrading, high quality development, to realize the transformation of export quantity type to quality type. I judge that as long as the trade surplus is maintained at a reasonable level, the RMB may continue to appreciate.

The number of China fertilizer exports is large, but the base fertilizer, mainly rely on the price to win. With the transformation of China's policy from high speed growth to high quality development, the control of environmental protection and resource consumption will become more and more stringent, and the cost will continue to rise. In addition, exchange rate changes and the way to occupy the international market by price will be narrowed. Urea has gone out of the international market, and the next one is phosphate fertilizer.

Or shut down a large number of phosphate fertilizer enterprises

Relative to the nitrogenous fertilizer enterprise, phosphate fertilizer enterprises are faced with the waste water, waste gas and waste residue problem, especially in the treatment of phosphogypsum is a problem. The China diammonium enterprises mainly large state-owned enterprises, with strong strength, from phosphorus ore to ammonia to products, a relatively complete industrial chain, environmental protection investment is relatively large, and in the production of ammonium in the small and medium-sized enterprises occupy a considerable proportion, the enterprise strength is weak, mainly rely on raw material production, inadequate investment in environmental protection. To promote high quality development, environmental protection must be normalized, phosphate rock supply also has a great deal of policy uncertainty, insufficient investment, raw materials for environmental protection is highly dependent on the production of small and medium-sized ammonium production enterprises, may face the test of life and death, excess capacity will speed up the clearing.

Compound fertilizer production enterprises is also facing environmental pressure.

Monoammonium and compound fertilizer are both low entry barriers, the cost of parking is not high, product output value is not low, but the added value is very low. In the past, when GDP - oriented, much of it was protected by the place, and the excess capacity had never been clear. To promote the development of high quality, shutting down such enterprises no longer put pressure on the local government, so the last two years, it may appear a large amount of phosphorus fertilizer enterprises, shutting down the phenomenon, production capacity will be further concentrated.  Monoammonium requires particular attention.

Analysis of the impact of short-term, long-term, high quality development makes the fertilizer industry is also facing great opportunities and challenges, manifested in two aspects: one is the chemical fertilizer demand will decline; two is the efficient fertilizer products will be enormous opportunities for development.

Fertilizer demand decline

Although the academic circle is not yet known, but the contribution of chemical fertilizer on yield of agricultural products than on the quality of contribution should be no too many objections. In 2018 central rural work conference, clearly pointed out that "the deepening agricultural supply side structural reform, quality agriculture road, accelerate agricultural production by the guide to quality oriented", which is the embodiment of national high quality development policy in agriculture. With the gradual implementation of the policy, it will inevitably lead to the decline in the demand for chemical fertilizers.

Efficient product opportunities

, the direction of product a lot, but the most promising high utilization rate of fertilizer products. High quality development and pollution are deadly enemies. The point source pollution of industry has been effectively controlled, and the non-point source pollution control of agriculture has not worked. The high utilization of fertilizer products will have great opportunities for agricultural non-point source pollution control.

Central policy has made impact on the fertilizer market will gradually appear, the fertilizer industry need to actively adapt to the adjustment of the policy.