I have judged that the window period for urea price rise has arrived. The concrete reasons are as follows:

From the past 3 years of historical experience, in addition to the May price of urea in 2016 in May, the price of urea in 2015 and 2017 has appeared in May without exception. Therefore, in May this year, urea prices rose with statistical regularity.

From a market mindset, dealers have never believed in the dubious belief that they have gradually accepted the fact that the supply of urea is tight. We no longer worry that the price of urea will continue to drop, but we will wait for the bottom of the urea price. The author realized that before the big companies had carried out the freight action, the inventory was very low, and the grassroots network inventory was also very low. With the approaching of the fertilizer season, there will be a big replenishment movement in the market, and the factory stock is at a very low level, so it is easy to cause the price of urea to rise.

In demand, the start-up rate of the compound fertilizer plant may fluctuate, but it will not fall sharply; in agriculture, the window period of the release of the national rigid demand has arrived, and the situation of the price free market in March is unlikely to be reproduced.

We need to focus on the northeast. The Northeast seems to be coming to an end with fertilizer. In March, when the price of urea continued to fall, dealers must try to sell short. But as time goes on and see that market prices remain strong, these short sellers will surely be refunded by the end of May. The later they make up, the greater the loss may be. Replenishment during this period will also superimpose fertilizer demand with other parts of the country, thereby accelerating the rise in urea prices.

From the data of supply and demand, we can see that the reduction of production and export reduction caused by gas shortage will form a certain hedge on supply. However, the reduction caused by gas shortage is in the early stage, and the amount of export reduction is gradually accumulated in the latter stage. The number of urea exports in the past 5~7 months was about 1 million 500 thousand tons, about half a month in the country. In recent years, the price rise time in May, it can be presumed that this year's price rise must advance to the middle of April. Therefore, the price increase in April is inevitable. Then we can infer that the slight pullback in late April is not a downward trend, but a gradual pullback in the trend. One peak will be higher than the other, and the trough will not return to its lowest point. This rule is understood as a reference to the K-line map of the stock.

Some people say that if the market does not appear new good, the price of urea will be short of the kinetic energy of price increase. I want to say that the reduction caused by gas shortage is the biggest positive. Before, some people discussed the southwest gas limit, China may help 100 thousand tons of North Korea urea, and possible environmental protection, but the author believes that the impact of these factors on the market is negligible compared to the reduction of gas shortage.

The rising trend of urea prices is a fait accompli and no longer needs any new benefits. Someone will argue that this gap has not been seen till now. I can only say that this judgment is too superficial for the understanding of fertilizer market. Chemical fertilizer is the product of weak storage, the chemical fertilizer market does not have the characteristics of the continuous demand of industrial products. Therefore, this gap is gradually reflected, the more later, the more it can reflect the gap.

The increase in the price of urea will increase the burden of the farmers, but on the one hand, the rise in the peak price can mobilize the enthusiasm of the production enterprises and increase the supply; on the other hand, it will also break the vicious circle of the price reduction in the peak season, which will help to improve the enthusiasm of the dealer's weak storage, which will benefit the whole industry and the farmers in the middle and long term.  Therefore, management should encourage moderate increase in fertilizer prices in the peak season.