In the first ten days of May, the northern part of China was in the spring sowing season in Northeast China. The compound fertilizer market was basically finished, the quantity of the downstream replenishment was very limited, and the market concern was gradually transferring to the urea in the field crops such as corn and soybean, such as corn and soybean, which were sown in June, and the heat of compound fertilizer gradually subsided.

Because of the obvious climate differences between regions, different from the northeast, the large and southern parts of the Central Plains and the South have entered the summer high nitrogen fertilizer peak season. Since the start of the summer fertilizer market, with the continuous promotion of the multi market market, the high nitrogen fertilizer prices in most enterprises have also been introduced. According to the Chinese fertilizer network, by the end of this week, the 40% chlorine based high nitrogen maize fertilizer (such as 28-6-6) in the country was about 1860-2000 yuan (ton price, the same below), and the price level was basically flat in mid April, and there was no obvious rise and fall.

First of all, raw materials. The recent raw material market can be described as "mixed feelings". Urea prices have bottomed out, high volatility has moved forward, and the demand for ammonium is short. As we all know, corn fertilizer in summer is dominated by high nitrogen fertilizer, and the proportion of raw material urea is relatively large. The cost of compound fertilizer is more obvious than that of urea market. According to Chinese fertilizer network, as of the end of this week, the main stream of urea in Shandong region is quoted at 1940-2000 yuan, because the industrial demand in the local downstream is stable, the agricultural demand in some areas is still available, and some enterprises have a slight low start rate recently, so the weakness of the price of urea will not be realized quickly. In this case, the profit of the raw material market and the stability of high nitrogen price has formed a strong support. Although the market in some areas has not reached the hot level of the market in the peak season, the price of the enterprise is still relatively stable.

Secondly, the demand side. In the wake of the end of the spring market, the summer fat market in some areas has been launched, and most of the regions have recently entered a critical period of fertilizer production. In addition to the northern spring sowing corn planting area in our country, the maize planting area of Shandong and Henan in the Yellow Huai sea plain summer sowing maize area is also very vast, accounting for about 32% of the total amount of the country. In addition, the southern part, such as Jiangsu, Zhejiang and Anhui, is about to step into the corn planting season.  With the approaching of the summer corn fertilizer period, the demand of high nitrogen fertilizer in the downstream market is released greatly, and the early market progress in local areas may be slightly slow, but with the gradual development of the market, the basic purchase has begun, and the demand for future market will be more optimistic. Therefore, under the push of demand, the high nitrogen price will be maintained at least. The current level.

Finally, the supply side. According to the relevant data of China fertilizer network, since the middle of April, the overall operation rate of large compound fertilizer enterprises in China has been around 60%, which has changed greatly since the early stage. The increase in demand leads enterprises to start steadily. However, the Qingdao "Shanghai up summit" is to be held in early June to hear that the part of Shandong will usher in an unprecedented pressure of environmental protection. In particular, most of the chemical enterprises in and around Qingdao will be limited in large areas even if they do not completely stop production. The start rate of the industry will be reduced. In addition, the small and medium enterprises in Linyi area, which are not qualified for environmental protection in the early period, are being checked and accepted one by one in the near future, so the construction of the compound fertilizer enterprises in local areas will also help the stable operation of the high nitrogen fertilizer price.

To sum up, the multiple good factors such as the warming of the urea market, the increase of the downstream preparation and the limited local production will make the high nitrogen price in the short term keep a steady and steady trend in the summer market. In the long run, we still need to pay close attention to the changes in raw materials, demand and supply.