At the beginning of 2018, the frequent fluctuations in the high price of urea have led to the repeated Procrastination of the primary agriculture, which resulted in the centralized procurement on the occasion of the start of the agricultural demand in late mid 4. Meanwhile, the downstream industrial production was resumed, and the high nitrogen fertilizer production was in full swing in the summer, and the price of urea rose at the beginning of this month. Up to now, Shandong's urea mainstream quotation has risen to 1960-2020 yuan / tonne, and Linyi's receiving offer rose to 2010-2020 yuan / tonne yesterday, and most of the enterprises in Shandong reached 1950 yuan / tonne.

Xiaobian believes that the main factors that support the urea price are the following two points.

First of all, although the current environmental inspection of high pressure has normalized and the summit will be held in Qingdao on June, the downstream industrial production has not yet been severely restricted, including high load production, including the compound fertilizer enterprises, among which some industrial enterprises are considering the possibility of production on the occasion of the meeting. Restrictions, in order to ensure the supply of the late, on the eve of the conference to tighten production, at the same time, there are companies taking this reason, will be intentional publicity during the meeting will be a difficult situation, and to some extent to stimulate the downstream procurement. Recently, the majority of urea enterprises in Shandong and other rivers have feedback, and the current transaction is mainly industrial, with large sales volume.

Secondly, the stock of the whole society in the previous stage is low. The source of the goods is mainly in the hands of the upstream enterprises and some large agricultural companies. There are different degrees of shortage when the agricultural needs are started in the middle and lower parts of the middle of 4 month. The downstream dealers are in a hurry to purchase, and the pressure of the enterprise sells sharply. A small amount of demand is needed to protect the supply. Dealers will also choose to reserve a small quantity of urea.

There is no sales pressure on the urea enterprises in most of the region. One of the Shanxi enterprises said that the enthusiasm of the downstream procurement has been significantly increased recently, and the standby orders can be carried out to the late mid - month of the month. Over the years in May for the peak period for maintenance of urea enterprises, but the temporary urea market is more ideal, there are a few enterprises to delay maintenance, so in the next period, even if the downstream procurement slowdown, some enterprises can also through normal maintenance, reduce supply to ensure the price of urea. It is expected that urea prices will rise steadily in the near future and are expected to last until the end of this month.  There is still something to be concerned about whether the price of urea will continue to rise.

In the supply side, China's fertilizer network data show that the daily production of urea in China is about 148 thousand tons, which has been hovering near the output since late February 2018.

In terms of demand, considering the international urea market generally, the next large number of exports should be very difficult. In June, the production of summer fertilizer in most compound fertilizer enterprises was basically closed. According to the situation held in recent years, the downstream industry is likely to be restricted, so the domestic downstream industry needs to be reduced. At the same time, although the temporary grass-roots agricultural dealers are receiving high prices in succession, the purchase is still cautious, and the duration of the period of manure occupation is likely to be greatly shortened, so from the enterprise to the grass-roots stage, there will be a batch of urea goods caused by the stock pressure from the grassroots to the enterprise. Therefore, on the basis of normal supply, downstream demand may be reduced, and the sales pressure of urea enterprises will increase.

In the end, in the short term, the price of urea will continue to continue. In the long run, the favorable factors in the urea market should be reflected and prudent operation.