In late May, the spring sowing work in most areas of the Northeast has ended, and the demand for fertilizer market is shifted from compound fertilizer to urea and other new type of fertilizer, while the Central Plains and southern parts of the central plains are in the key period of fertilizer preparation in summer. The high nitrogen compound fertilizer is still the leading role in the market. Slowly, although the downstream is gradually being purchased, the market's heat is not high, and the "peak season is not booming" state is once again vividly displayed.

As usual, the price of high nitrogen fertilizer in the summer market is not tired, not only for a few weeks, but also the price of some enterprises has been stronger, breaking the curse of the "peak price". According to Chinese fertilizer network, by the end of this week, the price of 40% chlorine based high nitrogen corn fertilizer (such as 28-6-6) in the country is about 1820-2000 yuan (ton price, the same below), and the price level of the same period in April is basically flat, and it is expected to continue, even partial or small elevation.

First, the cost support is strengthened. Recent raw materials nitrogen, phosphorus and potash fertilizer prices have risen, especially the urea market to a good road, high prices after high consolidation, according to the China fertilizer network, as of the end of this week, the Shandong region urea mainstream quotations are stable at 1970-2030 yuan, Linyi delivery price of about 2030-2040 yuan, the current enterprises have no sale pressure, part of the market It is expected that a new round of environmental inspection will be ushered in. It is expected that the price of urea will rise steadily in the short term. The quotations of some enterprises may continue to be slightly further explored. In addition, the price of one ammonium in Hubei is about 2060-2120, which is slightly higher than that in the earlier stage. Therefore, the general promotion of raw material prices has made the cost of compound fertilizer more supportive, and the possibility of high nitrogen fertilizer price falling is very small.

Second, the surplus demand is released. As early as the spring Market swept the tail, the summer fertilizer market in some parts of the region has been started. To today, the lower reaches of the lower reaches of the region, such as the two rivers and Shandong, have exceeded 6. Because the price of the fertilizer is higher than the previous year, the market changes frequently, and the price of the grain is low in recent years, and the purchasing power at the grass-roots level is weak. Not ideal, the dealer preparation also broke the previous reserve habits, the phenomenon of large quantities of cargo reduction, with the increase in the market, the number of early stock market sales is not much, after the market sales start, demand or will be concentrated release; in addition, high nitrogen prices in the near future, according to the "buy no buy down" market rules. Some dealers will also replenish the remaining demand.

Finally, the parking limit state appears. Since the spring market, the start-up rate of compound fertilizer enterprises is in a state of uncertainty as the market, according to China fertilizer network. By the end of this week, the construction rate of the large compound fertilizer enterprises in China was about 56%, a slight decline compared with the previous weeks, and the overall start rate of the strong season market failed to break through the level of more than 65%. Next, under the dual pressure of environmental protection and safety inspection, the operating rate in some areas will continue to decline. In June, the Qingdao "sup summit", even if it is not known as the grim situation, will also have a certain impact on the construction of some enterprises, parking, the phenomenon of limited production will inevitably occur. Therefore, the supply of local areas in the process of later demand concentration release will be slightly tense.

In summary, under the influence of cost support, surplus demand release and possible local supply, the high nitrogen price of the Xia Jifei market will remain at least at the present level before the tail end of the market, and the part may be pushed up. As for the specific trend of the replenishment period, the change of the raw material and the supply and demand side still need to be closely concerned. The situation.