On 24-26 May, the price of large particles of urea in Hebei, Shandong, declined by 20-60 yuan / ton. At the same time, the price of small granule urea for individual enterprises in Shandong and Shanxi, Jiangsu, was also reduced by 10-40 yuan / ton. The price of urea enterprises in the whole country is stable, and some enterprises can talk about a little expansion, but the quotations of urea enterprises in Inner Mongolia and other places in Northeast Xinjiang are steady or small, and even some enterprises still control the receipts.

Is the price of urea falling off this time? The answer seems to be positive because the demand for Industry and agriculture has been postponed and the rate of start up in the urea industry has slightly increased.

As a matter of fact, in recent years, Shandong's two rivers and Anhui provinces are harvesting winter wheat in many areas. Farmers have no time to prepare fertilizer, and the harvest of many wheat crops is not good. The peasants later or continue to reduce the input to corn / rice. Therefore, the dealers have taken a part of the urea for the base manure, or the farmers are ready to consult the urea in early /6 months of June. On the other hand, the industrial compound fertilizer enterprise has been worried about the heavy environmental pressure before and after the Qingdao Shanghai Qingdao summit in early June, and some summer fertilizer is produced in advance. In view of the price of 2050-2060 yuan per ton at one time in Linyi, the product stock of the compound fertilizer enterprise needs to be digested. For a period of time, and the late environmental pressure seems not to be in the middle of the big, even large, already have finished products can be sold, so the compound fertilizer enterprise and industrial plywood plant and other aspects of temporary delivery slowed (the price of Linyi delivery fell to about 2025 yuan per ton on the occasion of Friday), individual enterprises will give workers a holiday, workers can carry on the wheat harvest; third In the early period of the urea industry, the first large urea enterprise in Inner Mongolia was resumed, and a urea enterprise in Shanxi resumed full opening. In the next half week, a large urea enterprise in Hebei returned to full open after a brief overhaul. The maintenance time of a large urea enterprise in Henan was postponed to the beginning of June, only a certain Xinjiang. In this week, the urea industry was overhauled, so the production rate of the urea industry rose by more than two percentage points, and the daily output rose to about 145 thousand and 500 tons, reaching a slightly higher level.

It is known that the urea market has a little margin of interest, the first ten days of 6 month price or the weakness of the main, the industry speculated that the decline or 50-100 yuan / ton (if Inner Mongolia Xinjiang and other places of urea does not appear in the third price since this spring, the price decline should be less than this).

But don't be afraid! In mid April, the price of urea has risen to high, beyond the expectations of some people in the industry. In a preliminary view, the price drop of this round should be just a rest and the possibility of the later price increase is slightly larger.

On the one hand, on the one hand, the consumption of urea in the spring and summer market is 70% or even higher than the total consumption of the whole year. In recent years, some distributors in Jiangsu and Anhui are about to sow rice. Some dealers should make up a small amount of urea. In the early /7 month of 6, there is a large demand for urea in the country. If the recovery time is more concentrated, the price of urea in late June may be slightly higher; on the other hand, the possibility of the urea industry start rate is also more likely to be reduced again. A few urea enterprises in Shaanxi and other places in Henan will enter the maintenance period, and the maintenance of natural gas pipelines in Sichuan and other places (avoid the large area disconnection similar to the 2017 winter). Or to restrict the production of urea, the environmental inspection will look back again, and some of the unqualified urea enterprises and some of the equipment in the urea enterprises that are not up to the standard or will be stopped.

In short, it is still the word, no matter how much you look after the aftermarket, no matter how good the market is, we should take the goods in proper amount. After all, there are too many factors of uncertainty, such as the restrictions on the upstream and downstream of urea, such as the effect of the weather drought / rain on the use of fertilizer, such as urea and high nitrogen compound fertilizer / sulphuric acid. Sales competition between ammonium and ammonium chloride, such as about 100 thousand tons of imported urea, will arrive at China's ports before the end of June.