Last night, 1:50 minutes, a magnitude 5.7 earthquake occurred in Songyuan, Jilin. The city of Harbin has a strong sense of shock. At the time of the earthquake, the little editor was sleeping, suddenly woke up, felt that he was shaking, at first, he thought it was his own sleeping position, but he adjusted it or felt that he was shaking. . Earlier this morning, it was reported that the earthquake lasted for a long time and there were no casualties. Also in the weekend, the Shandong two river region urea enterprises quoted price of 20-50 yuan per ton, the industry began to worry about the current high urea price, the downstream market is also abnormal, and the small editor appears that the urea drop price is the same as last night, nothing big!

The reason for this is that the urea price has dropped sharply. The Qingdao summit has to be talked about.

In order to meet the summit, Qingdao has launched the "SCO summit construction system environmental quality guarantee program", which stipulates that the summit is suspended from May 26, 2018 to July 12th. In order to ensure local air quality, enterprises around Qingdao will begin to stop and limit production in succession. The key industries, such as petrochemical, iron and steel, chemical, coking, cement and other key industries, take measures to limit production, limit pollution or stop production, reduce the emission of pollutants, and the shutdown cycle is about one month. As a major province of chemical industry in China, there are more than 9000 chemical enterprises in Shandong, 37% of Enterprises above Designated Size, and 2000 of chemical enterprises in Qingdao. In short, the shutdown of industrial enterprises around Qingdao should be more common, and the production aspects of industrial enterprises in other areas of Shandong will be limited by different degrees. At present, the urea enterprises in the main production areas still give priority to the downstream industry, which will lead to a greater margin of urea price in these areas.

At the same time, the agricultural market in main production areas is also in a demand interval.

At present, most of the Shandong River areas are in the wheat harvest period, and the grass-roots farmers have no time to purchase urea and other fertilizers. In view of the resistance to the high price of the current fertilizer, the dealers also have more cautious purchasing attitude. Meanwhile, the enthusiasm of the dealers in the northeast region is also low. Most dealers said that urea was sold at a price and had a slight loss from time to time. Some dealers said they had no intention of supplying other retail customers in addition to fixed old customers, so in the case of large industrial demand, the agricultural demand was not able to support the urea market in a timely manner. Sales pressure increased sharply, urea prices fell sharply.

It has been said many times in the previous analysis that the attitude of long and prudent procurement in agriculture has also resulted in the emergence of an increase in urea on the occasion of fertilizer.

First, the main production zone, the urea enterprise, is now harvesting wheat from the south to the north, and a large range of corn planting will come after the end of the wheat planting cycle. In June, the fertilizer demand for corn will also be ushered in the northeast region. Loess land and black land are on the way to the demand of two major domestic crop producing areas (the corn demand for urea is no longer described in this area). At the same time, because the distributors are not afraid to reserve it, the urea stock is at the low stage at the present time. When the demand is started, the price of the urea market will be strong. Support.

Secondly, the downstream factories in the previous stage increase the production and purchase urea in large quantities. It can be considered that the downstream factories overdraft the late purchase and production, to some extent advance the progress of the urea enterprises to be sold to the downstream factories in a certain extent, and directly support the rapid pace of the previous urea valence, and therefore the multi urea enterprises therefore There is no stock pressure.

At the end of the year, in May, some urea enterprises have been overhauled at the peak period. Although some urea enterprises have ceased to repair and repair or have been reproduced in succession, some enterprises have extended their maintenance plans again and again because of the high urea market. No maintenance time, the overall supply or decrease of urea can also slightly support the weak market of urea.

At the present time, the demand for the agriculture needs to follow in general, the price of urea in the short term or the appropriate decline in the short term; the downstream agricultural demand in late 6 months will be started, and the price of urea is expected to be stable or a small rebound.