Heating in winter and supplying electricity in summer are the two production and marketing peak seasons in the power coal industry. Near July, with the continuous hot weather in many places in China, the summer peak season of steam coal was also officially opened.

Port coal price exceeds 700 yuan

After nearly two months' rise, the price of the domestic 5500 kcal power coal ports broke through the 700 yuan / ton mark in mid June, far exceeding the early warning line of the coal price set by the national development and Reform Commission.

According to China coal resources network data, as of June 8th, the latest CCI5500 composite index was 573 yuan / ton, an increase of 4 yuan / ton compared with May 4th, or 0.7%. CCI5500 power coal price reported 701 yuan / ton, compared with the same period in May increased by 89 yuan / ton, or 14.5%. This is the first time that the price has exceeded 700 yuan / ton Mark since the coal market entered the off-season in March this year.

After the long holiday of the Dragon Boat Festival, the price of the port has fallen slightly, but it is still at a relatively high level because of the lower daily consumption of the power plant and the high stock. Cui Yue, an analyst with Zhuo Chuang, said that the current six major coastal power plants have fallen more than 70 tons, and the stock can be more than 20 days, at a high level. Therefore, after the Dragon Boat Festival, the northern port 5500 kcal power coal fell back to 695 yuan / ton.

In the futures market, the main contract of steam coal in June 14th refreshed the high point of 661.4 yuan / ton in 1809. Compared with mid April, the lowest level of 549.4 yuan / ton has risen by more than 20%. By the end of June 22nd, the main contract was quoted at 642 yuan / ton.

By the good overall fundamentals, A shares have gradually become stronger in recent years.

In June 21st, the Wind coal index rose 1.16%, leading the market.  Yongtai's energy limit in the main coal mining industry is up to 6.28%, and energy is up 5.37%. On the 22 day, the coal index rose 0.88% again, and the cumulative increase in nearly 5 trading days was 0.51%.

In the context of the good coal price, the interim results of the listed companies in the coal industry are also frequent.

In a 2018 quarterly report in Datong coal industry, it is expected that the cumulative net profit from the beginning of the year to the next reporting period has increased considerably compared with the same period of the previous year, mainly due to the change in coal prices.

It also announced that the company expects net profit of 950 million yuan to 1 billion 300 million yuan in the first half of 2018, an increase of -10% to 25% over the same period last year. The company expects business performance to change over the same period last year, mainly due to changes in coal production and sales, electricity consumption and cost.

In addition, China Shenhua (Hong Kong shares 01088) the latest announcement of the May operation data report showed that the company's coal sales volume was 35 million tons in the month, up 3.9% in the last year, and the cumulative sales of coal was 1.86 billion tons in the first five months of this year, up 2.2% from the same year.

Coal price of high pit

Recently, the price of coal mine pit has been raised frequently, and it has become a strong stimulant to stimulate the price of coal.

According to the data of Yulin coal trading center, in June 19th, the Shenmu partial coal mine in Shaanxi raised the price by 10-20 yuan / ton, and some coal mines in Inner Mongolia increased the coal price by 15 yuan / ton. Although the price of coal mine has not been raised recently in Yuyang District of Shaanxi, the price of some coal mines is at a high level of 500 yuan / ton.

This week, the CCI valuation system showed that the Datong 5500 kcal was 465 yuan / ton, the Ordos 5500 kcal was 381 yuan / ton, and the Shaanxi 5800 card newspaper was 431 yuan / ton, raising 10 yuan per ton, 11 yuan / ton and 7 yuan per ton respectively, and the increase was further expanded relative to last week.

It is alleged that the recent rise in coal prices is not a demand pull, but has a great relationship with the reduction of capacity. Due to environmental protection and safety inspection, Shenmu, Fugu and Inner Mongolia have stopped production in many mines, and the coal washing plants in the region have been shut down for rectification and production, and coal production capacity has been greatly reduced.

In June 14th, the Jiaozuo Municipal Industry and Information Commission of Henan Province issued a bulletin on the decomposition public notice of the city's operational coal classification and regulation responsibility. There were 409 operating coal farms in the city, of which 206 were reformed, and 203 were to be closed. The announcement requires that by the end of June 2018, the goal of environmental pollution control in the operational coal yard within the jurisdiction should be completed in an all-round way, and the management of the management coal yard before July 15th is accepted and the supervision is strengthened, and it is closed in accordance with the law.

In addition, according to Tianfeng Securities Research Report, since June, relevant departments of the state have gradually entered the main producing areas to carry out environmental protection inspection and coal mine safety inspection. Shaanxi in June 11th carried out second rounds of coal mine safety inspection work, restricted by environmental inspection, local coal mine production, low production capacity in coal mine, coal yard at present no stock. In May 30th, Inner Mongolia Zhungeer Qi pollution prevention and control team carried out environmental protection inspection. The intensity was relatively strict. Some coal mines were shut down and production capacity was very low. In addition, in June 11th, the Ministry of environmental protection launched a new round of atmospheric supervision, in addition to the 2+26 cities in Beijing, Tianjin Hebei and the surrounding areas, 11 cities were added to the Fen Wei plain, and coal was mainly controlled by the open-pit mines and dust.

Interweaving and parallelism of multi space factors

Although environmental inspectors have stimulated coal prices to go up, the recent state development and Reform Commission's frequent sound control of coal prices has led to a surge in market sentiment.

Since the next ten days of May, the national development and Reform Commission has repeatedly voicing the stable coal market. It has convened two times of coal electricity leading enterprises and departments, and introduced a series of regulatory policies. In response to the call for stabilizing the price, the major coal enterprises, the major coal companies in the first ten days of June, stated that they would fully stabilize the coal market situation, guarantee the coal safety of "the peak of the summer", and take the lead in reducing the price of the coal.