July, the beginning of the second half of the party's birthday, of course, in addition to these important days, of course, there are other topics, especially the urea, the focus of attention on the market is still how to develop the market, at this time the weak price can be counterattacked in adversity. Unfortunately, most of the main producing areas rarely fall below 1800 yuan / ton. As the current urea market is normal, the price is high, the range is basically maintained at about 10-30 yuan / ton, the supply is affected by the environmental inspection, the maintenance of the plan, the temporary malfunction and so on. The enterprise commencement rate fluctuates frequently; the demand side has swept the tail, the lower wave has not started, the market is watching the atmosphere is getting stronger and supply in July. And who will dominate the fate of urea and become the focus of attention in the upstream and downstream markets?

The supply is controlled by the variable. In the first half of this year, the start rate of urea enterprises has been on the low level. It is one of the biggest players in the production enterprises. Therefore, in the second half of this year, the manufacturers will also take into account the impact of the change on the trend of the market. First of all, the environmental inspection restrictions that cannot be ignored, such as those that fail to upgrade and meet the standards, will be closed before the end of September this year. The State Council of the State Administration of safety of the State Council also announced a large inspection of safety production in the early 7-10 months. All the pesticides and chemical fertilizer plants in the 34 provinces and municipalities of China will be "checked", and none of them will be spared! In addition, it is particularly important that in 2018, the environmental protection should be strictly checked for 3 years. In addition to Beijing, Tianjin and Hebei and the surrounding areas and the Yangtze River Delta region, the Fen Wei plain (including Xi'an and Xianyang in Shanxi and Shaanxi provinces) will be included in the key areas of air pollution prevention and control for the first time. In addition, it is understood that Shanxi, Guangxi and other places are in the period of environmental protection in the "look back" period, some urea enterprises to limit production or stop production, followed by the summer high temperature "strange", do not exclude that some urea enterprises may temporarily stop, such as a factory in Guangxi or at any time to pay attention to other areas; finally, some enterprises may choose the strategy, some enterprises may choose. It is necessary to carry out medium and long term equipment maintenance at this time, for example, the Northeast market will become a concentrated area. However, according to the practice, in view of the high price consolidation of urea, some urea enterprises may "temporarily change the diagrams" for profit consideration; in addition to the weakness of the domestic liquid ammonia Market, the local price, especially in the Inner Mongolia region, has been reduced to about 2250-2300 yuan per ton, and the other regions are dominated by the northern market, and the liquid ammonia is the source.  Excessive supply and price shocks have no supporting role in the urea market. Some enterprises maintain relatively high load in urea. On the basis of several factors, the variables of urea enterprises operating rate are relatively large, and it is difficult for them to become clear profits or bad profits for the time being.

In the off-season, orders are difficult to maintain the current state of adequacy. In July, the traditional off-season, agriculture needs to finish, especially in the near future from Inner Mongolia, Xinjiang, Shanxi and other low-cost areas to understand that the demand for urea in the local market, the end of the demand for urea agriculture, the current transaction prices have been significantly reduced, and will be a large number of shipments to the provinces outside the province, especially to Sichuan, Guangxi, Jiangsu and other places. According to the agricultural dealers in Southern China, southwest and other places, the wholesale price of urea is more and more disorderly and deals with a moderate amount of deliberation; the industrial demand is light, on the one hand, the price and policy of compound fertilizer are not clear, the enthusiasm for raw material procurement and production is low, on the other hand, besides the effect on the urea production, the environmental inspection is the compound fertilizer and most chemical enterprises. Industry (small majority) enterprises have been affected more obviously, the majority of production stops and limited production, and most of the limited production time is uncertain, or the environmental "look back" continued, the amount of urea procurement decreased obviously; finally, the position of the granular ammonium chloride in the market, instead of urea as the increase in the use of fertilizer, according to the utilization rate of feedback. It is also more obvious that it is a shock to urea. In July, the possibility of maintaining a high level of ammonium chloride in China in July is more likely, but the deal may have a dark fall. In comparison with the higher price urea, some compound fertilizer enterprises may choose to replace the urea with a small amount of ammonium chloride.

In a comprehensive way, the urea market is full of complex factors which are full of advantages and disadvantages. Undoubtedly, supply and demand continues to be the main factor affecting the price of urea. In view of the restriction of the normalization of environmental protection, the main factors affecting the urea market in July are still the changes in demand. It is expected that the pessimistic atmosphere in the urea market in July is thicker, but if it continues to be so In the later period, there will be a chance to rebound.