In June, the domestic coal market was generally stable, the supply and demand of the steam coal market was tight, and the market prices rebounded. The coal market in July is judged by:

The general trend of coal market is slowing down, and the trend of power coal market is divided.

From the demand side

First, the domestic economy continued to run steadily. In June, PMI was 51.5%. Although it was obviously falling down, it was still running above the dry line. The negative impact of Sino US trade war on import and export has been preliminarily shown. Two, the demand of the downstream industry is clearly differentiated. Iron and steel: since the end of June, the steel social stock has seen signs of touching the bottom, indicating that the process of stock removal has ended since the Spring Festival. From 1 to May this year, the total electricity consumption of the whole society increased by 9.8% year on year, 3.4 percentage points higher than that of the same period last year, and the economy was steadily improving the rapid growth of energy demand. Steam coal has entered a high level of consumption. The daily consumption of coal in the six major power plants on the coast is about 750 thousand tons, significantly higher than the same period last year. The three is that the market is expected to change the short-term demand.

From the supply side

The supply of coal is increasing. In May, the output of raw coal in China was 2.97 million tons, a slight increase of 4 million tons from last month. Coal production capacity maintains a moderate release rhythm. Two, coal social inventory significantly increased. After continuous regulation by relevant departments of the state, the effect of supply and protection has begun to appear, and port and user inventories have increased significantly. By the end of 6, the stock of four ports in Bohai, 19 million 410 thousand tons, increased by 2 million 910 thousand tons than at the end of 5. The inventory of Qin Hong Kong returned to a reasonable level of 7 million tons, and the stock of six power plants in the coastal area totaled 15 million tons, the highest level in the past four years. Three, the policy of coal import is relaxed again. In May, China imported 22 million 330 thousand tons of coal, which was basically the same as in April. In order to alleviate the tight situation of domestic resources supply and demand, the recent country relaxed the direct purchase of coal imported from the power plant. It is said that it will further shorten the import coal clearance time of direct incoming plant, and it is expected that the import of coal will rise obviously in July.

Comprehensive analysis

Preliminary judgement: in July, the domestic coal market will tend to relax, and there will be downward pressure on coal prices. The power coal market has entered the consumption season, and the price of coal has the demand support. Although the current coal price is under the short-term adjustment under the policy, the trend of the market turbulence will remain unchanged.