In June 27th and July 2nd, the price of a large urea plant in Heilongjiang was reduced by 150 yuan / ton and 120 yuan per ton respectively. In July 2nd, the price of a large urea plant in Liaoning was reduced by 180 yuan / ton. At the end of last week, the outgoing factory of Xinjiang fell below 1550 yuan / ton, and the outgoing factory of Inner Mongolia fell below 1700 yuan / ton at the beginning of this week, from the northwest to north-west. The light reservoir calculation is the curtain, as we all know that in the same period in the same period in 2017, the light storage of goods dealers basically earn a full bowl full, generally at least 20-30 yuan per ton of profit, it is necessary that many industry people are most concerned about the current urea light storage should not be taken this year, what kind of operation strategy, root knot Bottom line, is there any sweetness for urea storage this year?

First look at historical data, it is true in 2017, or in 2016, almost all the price of urea in the middle of 8 months began to go high, and almost all the July market abnormal downturn. For example, the price of a large urea enterprise in Heilongjiang from July 6th is from the previous 1660-1690 yuan / ton to 260-690 yuan / ton to 1400 yuan / ton (attention is the prepaid price). At the end of the month, the settlement price was 1410 yuan / ton), and then until the beginning of September, the factory price had just begun to rise by 70 yuan / ton to 1480 yuan per ton (note that SODm urea was produced, ordinary urea was generally 50 yuan per ton lower than this), and the ordinary urea went back to 1650 yuan per ton at the end of October, and the lowest price of the company was 1060 yuan per ton in July 14, 2016. Until the beginning of September, the price of SODm urea began to rise.

Although the cost of the head urea and the cost of the head of the coal have been rising in different degrees in the last three years, the total urea output of the whole country is also decreasing, but the above data can be seen that the price trend should be the same, especially when the new production capacity is miniscule and the environmental force is unprecedented. To a great extent, it will show a better situation.

According to China chemical fertilizer network, the current situation of the urea light storage at the end of June is that a few northeastern urea dealers have taken a small amount of cargo since the early July. The Northeast individual urea enterprises even prepare to rent the warehouses of the downstream agricultural companies from the urea storage, and some Gansu dealers also take a small amount of Xinjiang source, Shanxi, and new stores in the way of the Federal Reserve. The urea of Xinjiang has been sent to the whole country by the way of the Federal Reserve or the bottom of the Federal Reserve. (of course, most of course is prepared for the fall bottom fertilizer, temporarily not on the light storage). The wholesale price of urea in the south-west southeast market has also been greatly reduced, and the dealers are watching.

We should hurry back to the topic we are most concerned about. Will there be any sweetness in this year?

First is the mentality, since there have been a very small number of dealers to start to store the goods, even before November to sell, also show that the industry is more optimistic about the light storage market this year, but also two times to emphasize the mentality, but a very large number of dealers look bullish on weak storage, will increase the risk of storage, at least will also make The profit of the later sale is not too big. It is suggested that we should operate properly to measure whether the urea is not consolidated under the high temperature in summer, and the risk of losing money can be measured.

The second is the demand, the industrial demand is more balanced, the autumn fertilizer has the trend of price rise, but the pressure of environmental protection is great, whether the compound fertilizer enterprise will stop in large area, or whether it will concentrate production under the condition of environmental protection, or simply scattered production, these possibilities will affect the rhythm of the rise and fall of urea to a certain extent; The demand of the industry can be answered by the first point, and the agricultural needs are supported, but it may be released in advance. Given the high price of urea in the last few years, the dealer's fall bottom fertilizer is likely to be ahead of time; the export demand, the amount, can not be seen too much for the time being, and the export of 10-20 million tons per month or below should be the normal (undocumented). The real news is that the total export volume in 1-5 months is only 572 thousand tons, far below the 2 million 150 thousand tons in the same period in 2017.

In the last ten days of May, 1 million tons of new capacity in Shandong has been put into production, and 600 thousand tons of new capacity will be released in August in August. Next spring, another 1 million 200 thousand tons of new capacity will be released in Inner Mongolia. Natural gas or coal will be cut off for the first two years or for a long time, and the two in the winter and the next spring. Supply should not be too poor, urea production in the second half of this year should be slightly higher than the same period in 2017; although environmental high pressure is normal, most urea enterprises have reached the standard. In Beijing, a major meeting or monitoring of severe haze weather, urea enterprises may reduce production significantly; in a word, the production of urea will be slightly increased, to the weak storage. The operation is a little bad, but it needs to be observed.

To sum up, this year, dealers involved in urea storage may increase, and prices may not fall too much during the slack season from mid July to early August. Some industry insiders think that the possible price is only 50-100 yuan / ton or a little drop on the basis of the current basis, but after all, the urea enterprises still have profit space, difficult export and import. And the supply or increase of domestic urea will not increase too much, so the risk of light storage will increase. Once this time is too much, the storage operation seems to be more secure.