In the middle of July, our country entered the rainy season in many areas. In recent years, most areas have frequent rainfall. The chemical fertilizer market seems relatively calm. In fact, the fertilizer enterprises are competing fiercely each other in the autumn fertilizer market. Since the autumn fertilizer market started, some of the high nitrogen / high phosphorus wheat fertilizer prices have been introduced in some enterprises. The preferential policies such as interest insurance and fund making and return have also begun to be implemented. Compared with the previous year, the price level of compound fertilizer has been higher than the same period last year by about 100-200 yuan / ton. Although the price of fertilizer is not completely clear in the fall, the basic trend in the short term is affected by the factors such as raw material and supply and demand, but it is not clear for a long time.

First, the price of raw materials is rising and falling. According to Zhong Fei net, up to now, the main quotations for urea production in Shandong area are 1990-2050 yuan (ton price, the same below). The northern field crop recovery has ended all, the demand for urea on the domestic agriculture has gradually weakened, the export is not good, and the price of Inner Mongolia and Shanxi is relatively low, and it is expected that the trend of the long-term urea price quotation is weak. One ammonium price increased stability, Hubei area 55% powdery monoammonium mainstream quoted price at 2200 yuan, individual high-end quotations of 2250 yuan, raw material sulphur prices are strong and enterprises are hard to recover and other factors, the latter is still a certain rise in space. The price of raw materials fluctuates frequently, and the cost of compound fertilizer is generally stable and fluctuating slightly.

Second, enterprises started to start slowly. By the end of last week, the overall operation rate of large compound fertilizer enterprises in China has been maintained at around 44%, and the weekly ratio has increased by about 3%. Now it has entered the key period of the autumn fertilizer market. With the gradual clearer of the quotations and policies of each enterprise, the downstream stock has also been carried out, and the enterprises can increase the production after the advance orders, but the start rate has not been greatly increased. The reason is that the enterprises are less active in the lower reaches of the local areas. The collection is not very good, the new list is light; the two reason is that some small and medium-sized enterprises are still under the heavy pressure of environmental protection, and the reform and approval of the equipment are under way. As soon as the autumn fertilizer and fertilizer peak season is coming, the temporary fashion of enterprises can not be effectively relieved. Once the late start is released, more or less will affect the price of autumn fertilizer more or less.

Finally, the competition is fierce. At the beginning of the start of the autumn fertilizer market, the enterprise order will be unfolded one after another. The price and policy of the first part of the enterprise may not be introduced. It is only a tentative understanding of the mentality of the downstream. So far, the differences between the enterprises in each region are quite different. The sales promotion products have been widely recognized by the lower reaches of the enterprises, which have impacted the enterprises in the local area. In this case, the enterprises with relatively high quotations in the first round of payment can only introduce such preferential policies as warehousing, freight subsidy and payment and return, and the price competition between enterprises is more intense. In the face of the depressed market sentiment, the price level is particularly important. In order to gain a place in the autumn fertilizer market, the price of the enterprise will remain relatively stable under the condition that the cost can be satisfied.

To sum up, in the short term, the price of compound fertilizer in some areas will be stable, partial or narrow, but the development of factors such as raw material price, downstream demand and upstream supply are still to be concerned for a long time.