I would like to share with you some data on urea utilization rate:

As of July 31st, the urea industry started to operate at a low operating rate of about 51.7%, and the weekly ratio dropped by nearly four percentage points.

In July 28th, a large urea plant in Ningxia could be overhauled for half a month.

On the afternoon of July 29, the equipment of a large urea plant in Hebei Province was overhauled for some reasons, and the duration may be 3-5 days or a week.

Early in July 30th, a urea plant in Inner Mongolia began to plan for maintenance, and the initial duration was 25 days.

In July 30th, a large urea plant in Shaanxi could be overhauled for a week.

On August 10-15, another two urea plants in Inner Mongolia are about to start overhaul within the plan.

The two urea plant in Shaanxi began to reduce its load since July 20th, and the Shanxi urea enterprise started to start a little drop in the middle of July.

In recent days, look at the breakthrough in urea start in the last few days, with most urea manufacturers in the country before the price has been quoted in a slightly large scale a slight drop of two or three times. At present, the actual transaction price of a certain manufacturer in Shanxi is slightly raised after a low price absorption of a single manufacturer, and the lower price of the manufacturer in a certain shutdown of Inner Mongolia has reached 50 thousand. About 100 thousand tons of Iran urea in our country are expected to turn to export in July 25th, and the 100 thousand tons of Iran urea in our country are expected to be exported. Do these factors mean that the price of urea should be at the bottom? That is, the possibility of bottoming out is increasing.

At present, most areas of northeast and Northwest China are basically in a state of no demand for agriculture, industrial power plants and plywood plants, a small amount of gap in summer corn dressing in the Central Plains, and a small amount of demand in the later period of the two quarter crops in Yunnan, Guizhou and Chongqing, and the demand for industrial and plywood factories in these areas is slightly better. The start rate of industrial compound fertilizer plants in these areas has risen slightly (the average commencement rate of the compound mast plant is up two or three percentage points for two weeks). At present, the nationwide range is roughly in the light season of demand. Next time, a slightly large amount of demand is in the late 8 month of mid - late 8, and the compound fertilizer enterprise takes urea for autumn fertilizer production. Demand (October is the base fertilizer period, taking into account the production and delivery cycle one month ahead) and the depleted storage demand of major agricultural companies everywhere.

As time goes on, this sudden drop in start rate will make some urea companies stand up, or make some urea companies go back to the road, by lowering prices to explore the bottom, and may try to raise prices after getting enough orders.

After the analysis of the increase in the possibility of the export of urea in our country and the preparation of the import urea for export, the new bid was announced in India after the last article. In August 1st, the urea manufacturer in China fell into a period of customary price stability or hype, but whether the price would be at the bottom of the price or whether the price would be at the bottom should be considered homemade. The real export of urea and the export quantity of the imported urea heard the preparation of a large company in the urea collection, but it heard that the prices of the low price provinces on South market had arrived, the price fell, and the price of the export was not increased for the time being.

It is the beginning of this article, which is the beginning of this article. The temporary shutdown duration is not long. The manufacturers in these plans are basically overhauled in the same period in previous years. They did not push the price of urea to rebound in advance at that time, let alone a urea plant in Heilongjiang and Inner Mongolia in August 6th. Two the urea plant has been prepared to reproduce, and the operation of a urea plant in Shandong is becoming more and more normal. In August, a new capacity or product will be produced in Inner Mongolia. It can only be said that the start rate will bring a certain impact on the downstream new buyers. The next start rate depends largely on the two aspects of the weather and policy.

In the end, the key is to look at the light storage mentality of the big agricultural companies and the mindset of the compound fertilizer enterprise, which is to take the goods tentatively during the present stage (since the price of urea has hardly fallen to the cost line in the last two years, so the majority of the industry can't judge which point is the point at the bottom), or in the urea enterprise. No longer take the initiative to reduce prices (recent consideration of the capital chain, taking into account the Northeast Northwest low-cost source of shocks and other factors) when a one-time delivery?

In short, the same time last year, the price of urea was likely to rebound some time in August. As time went on, the better dealers in the hands seemed to be ready to move. Bounce on the occasion of the settlement, the upstream and downstream are abnormally concerned about the near period of the market, only to say that the start of urea break down may accelerate the pace of the recent price backlash, the price of the first ten days of 8 month may be slightly reduced.