Since August, the urea market can be said to have hit a hormone-like surge, according to Jin Lianchuang statistics, in the Shandong market, the domestic urea market has risen to 160 yuan / ton before the rise, the price is approaching 2000 yuan / ton, looking for the reasons for the early rise, mainly due to the sudden decline in the start of work, then Later, will the domestic urea market continue to boom or reverse?

Supply and demand fundamentals

On the supply side, according to the statistics of Jinlian Chuang, as of August 21, the domestic urea market had started operation at 54.74%, with a daily output of 1307,000 tons, up 3.57% compared with last Friday. According to statistics, although there was equipment overhaul this week (Changshan, Jilin, Huajin, Liaoning), the total daily output decreased by 2200 tons, but the daily output increased more than this. Figure, Shaanxi Weihua, Ningxia Petrochemical, Yunnan Jiehua have started this week, Shaanxi Huashan, Chongqing Jianfeng, Anhui Haoyuan have increased production in varying degrees, this Sunday's total output increase reached 5,800 tons, and the latter Inner Mongolia still has devices to start, Boda 21 afternoon has been out of the product, Tianrun will start later, because This supply side will increase in the later stage. However, it is expected that the urea start-up will not exceed 58% for the rest of the 18-year period, and the lowest will still fall back to about 50%.

In terms of demand, the plate mill has started to operate slightly in recent days, which is one of the reasons why the market in Shandong has been rising continuously since last weekend. However, since the 20th, Shandong Province has carried out environmental inspection again, resulting in a decline in the start of the plate mill, and the receiving price in Linyi, Shandong Province, has dropped slightly. It is said that the gold and silver are also waiting for this moment, if the environmental protection is general, can allow driving, then the start of the plate will be improved, increasing urea demand; if continued strict, start-up does not rise and fall, the results are predictable. At present, the demand for environmental protection in some local plate factories is declining.

Businesses are well received, but downstream is slow.

_enterprise advance receipts are still relatively adequate, it is understood that the main urea production enterprises in Shandong, Hebei and other places to book orders to reach 40-50,000 tons, is expected to send more than 10 days, so on the enterprise side, still can firm prices, but the downstream situation is that the source of trade goods has arrived, shipment is not ideal. The consumption of terminal is difficult to raise, and the market has no price.

Domestic and international double rises and export opportunities increase.

At present, not only domestic urea market prices have risen to a high level, but also international prices have shown a continuous upward trend. As of last week's closing, China's large particle FOB prices were between 285 and 290 U.S. dollars per ton, up from 15 to 16 U.S. dollars per ton at the beginning of the month. Other regions have even risen by 40 to 50 U.S. dollars per ton, due to the needs of Europe, India and other places. Seeking prosperity, it is expected that the international urea market will continue to rise, so as China's offshore prices gradually converge with international standards, China's internal and external price gap has gradually decreased, China's export opportunities are still increasing. According to statistics, there were 155,000 tons of large and small particles in China's ports in August. Some domestic enterprises in Shandong and Jiangsu have signed a small number of export orders, which is much better than the previous situation. In the future, if the RMB continues to depreciate, the international market continues to rise, the U.S. sanctions against Iran on schedule and other conditions are met, China's export opportunities will increase substantially.

The short term volatility is still optimistic.

_anticipates that there will be a small increase in supply in September. If environmental protection is relaxed, the board mill will start to increase. Otherwise, it will still be weak and the probability will not be relaxed. Therefore, the short-term supply and demand impact on the market may be negative. However, at the end of September, some compound fertilizer enterprises will also produce high-nitrogen fertilizers or use some urine. Prime. In the short term, the domestic urea market is not strong enough, coupled with the lack of demand, the probability will maintain the state of fluctuation adjustment, short-term or a certain extent of downward adjustment is expected.

In the long run, exports may be better than in the first half of the year, coupled with environmental restrictions in autumn and winter and tight supply of raw materials (especially natural gas), the probability of start-up will still fall sharply, which will push up market prices, so the future trend is still good, but I believe that the market will be in a state of terminal shortage. Procurement results in a price free market.