At present, the second round of environmental supervision was officially launched in August 20th. It is expected to continue until the end of April 2, 2019. The inspection focuses on Beijing, Tianjin and Hebei and the surrounding markets including Beijing, Tianjin, Hebei Shijiazhuang (including Xinji), Tangshan, Baoding (including Dingzhou), Langfang, Cangzhou, Hengshui, Handan, Xingtai, Taiyuan, Yangquan, Changzhi, Jincheng, Jinan, Zibo, Liaocheng, Dezhou Binzhou, Jining, Heze, Zhengzhou (including Gongyi), Xinxiang (including Changheng), Hebi, Anyang (including Huaxian), Jiaozuo (including Jiyuan), Puyang, Kaifeng and other "2+26" cities, and Fenwei, Yangtze River Delta. Affected by environmental inspection, most of the raw materials prices are rising sharply, synthetic ammonia products are no exception.

Firstly, from the supply side, the above mentioned areas all have the phenomenon of failure shutdown and environmental production restriction. According to the statistics of the small edition, the daily supply of 13 enterprises in Shandong is about 3060 tons. If all the plants are fully produced, there is still room to increase the market supply by 1500 tons. The same is true in other markets. Up to the 22nd, the daily supply of seven key enterprises in Hebei Province was 2210 tons; the daily supply of five enterprises in Anhui Province was 2130 tons; the daily supply of five enterprises in Jiangsu Province was 950 tons; and the daily supply of seven enterprises in Henan Province was 2630 tons, excluding the manufacturers of plant parking. Judging from the July output statistics by the National Bureau of Statistics, the total output in July was 402.69.61 million tons, an increase of 2.8% over the same period of last year, mainly due to the low urea price in the early period, and the result of some manufacturers'conversion to synthetic ammonia, while the cumulative output in January-July was 27.759.98 million tons, a decrease of 3.6% over the same period of last year. Compared with the current environmental protection situation, the overall output in August will be much lower than that in July.

From the demand side, the reduction of production and parking caused by environmental protection led to the reduction of supply, which made some downstream trade more active to take goods, a sense of both taking and cherishing goods, and the market price trend has exceeded expectations. According to the market reaction, Dongying Tianhong and Korul are known to have signed an order of 4000 tons for one month; Sierbang, Jiangsu Province, has more than 1000 tons of EOA equipment in stock; and Yuntianhua, Inner Mongolia, has recently received the goods. In addition to large contract orders, such as Shanxi, Northeast and other places to take goods tense, downstream vehicles choose to transfer goods outside the province in a few. For the market, current demand is acceptable and goods are optimistic.

On the whole, optimism dominates. Under the pressure of environmental protection, the market is relatively out of stock and the pressure of inventory is not high. Even if there is equipment recovery in the later period, it may be possible to maintain stable shipment in the short term. However, the small edition said that the current mainstream surge, the risk is greater, the current downstream trade acceptance is not the same, the latter still need to be carefully operated, more attention to manufacturers and environmental protection.

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