The urea start up rate has reached 57% as of August 25th. Industrial compound fertilizer enterprises slow delivery, Linyi delivery price from last week's high-end 2015-2020 yuan / ton fell to this week's low-end 1940 yuan / ton, and then rebounded to about 1,950 yuan / ton! History is always surprisingly similar, rose in mid-early August, fell in late August!

Urea has been determined to "repeat the same mistakes", that is to say, increase more and fall less. I have to go up later. Let me take a look at the following aspects.

Looking back on the past, taking Shandong as an example, in the middle and early August, Shandong mainstream ex-factory quotations rose sharply from 1820-1850 yuan / ton, then rose slightly to 1950-1960 yuan / ton, and then fell back to 1900-1920 yuan / ton in late August. The turnover of ex-factory rose from 1770 yuan / ton at the beginning of August to 1940-1960 yuan / ton, and only dropped to 1880 yuan / ton at the end of August 30. Looking ahead, in early July Shandong mainstream ex-factory quotation is 1960 yuan / ton, forming an arc in my mind, this year urea prices seem to have missed the lowest point.

Look at the current market, the industry's pick up and the momentum. Compound fertilizer enterprises have been forced to accept some higher-priced urea sources in the process of urea manufacturers'quotations rising and falling gradually, and have to turn to ammonium chloride and ammonium sulfate as a small amount of alternative raw materials, slowing down the pace of delivery around August 20, Linyi delivery price from the rise to fall, but after all, the autumn fertilizer production should continue. To late September or even later, there will be a certain demand for urea warehouse replenishment in the near future, the price of Linyi pick-up has picked up slightly since August 28, which is a good illustration of this point.

Exports are expected to be better. Up to August 17, we have signed orders for the export of large granular urea for about 100,000 tons. Up to now, a large factory in Hebei, Shandong and Jiangsu has been in port. Although it is difficult to reach 10,000 tons in each factory, there are always thousands of tons. Recently, although the international urea price is slightly boycotted, there are signs of reaching the top, but Bangladesh and other places still have new procurement tenders, Brazil, Turkey and other places seem to have a small gap, not to mention the price should be able to consolidate high for the time being, China's urea exports, especially the export of large granular urea is a certain advantage. The only dike required is that China's large and small urea particles are currently charged more than US$290-300 per ton offshore, but India's last tender period ended Sept. 17, making the Iranian urea price for shipment after that fall back to US$230-240 per ton, if the Iranian cargo source is sent to China (not re-exported, but sold inland). Coastal market, that is, Guangdong, Yantai and other places caused a certain impact on prices, of course, the import source of shipment cycle is longer, the domestic urea market in September should not be too risky.

Urea start-up rate rebounded faster, two large urea plants in Inner Mongolia have basically opened, but in recent days there are new twists and turns, to August 30 industry start-up rate fell to about 54%. A large urea plant in Inner Mongolia was temporarily shut down for about 10 days. A large urea plant in Shaanxi Province was temporarily shut down for one day on August 26. Shanxi urea plant continued to operate at a low level. Six to eighty percent of the load was cut. In the future, a factory in Shaanxi planned to overhaul from September 3, a factory in Ningxia planned to overhaul in mid-September, environmental pressure has been, natural gas during the winter period is almost nailed down and so on.

The next few months will be dominated by industrial demand. The low start rate in the next few months seems to be the norm. Some are irresponsible.

In short, the right amount of goods, timely launch, optimistic about the second half of the market, but also a little cautious.