At the end of August, the weather in Northeast China became cool gradually, the temperature difference between morning and evening became bigger, and from time to time there would be a light rain to increase the rich color of autumn. Recently, the market of compound fertilizer had a feeling that the clouds and mists were cleared to see the sunshine. The demand for autumn fertilizer in the lower reaches was finally pulled open, and most of the compound fertilizer enterprises began to go better, even in the ministry. The quotations of the sub-enterprises have risen by 30-50 yuan per ton. Will the fertilizer market continue to improve after September? How much more room for price growth?

First, the price of urea is high and the price of fertilizer for high nitrogen type wheat is strong. After nearly 20 days of gains in early August, urea prices began to fall from August 22, the daily decline in the range of 10-20 yuan / ton, Shandong Lianghe small urea prices down to about 190-1920 yuan / ton, the decline is very slow, and even in recent days Linyi Shandong pick-up prices slightly increased by 10-20 yuan / ton, although urea The market is weak, but the late rally can be expected, most people believe that the latter period in the fall space is not big, with the start of local industrial demand and the reduction of the operating rate, after September urea prices may be stable rebound. Even at current prices, there is still strong support for quotations for autumn fertilizers, especially for high-nitrogen wheat fertilizers.

Second, the price of phosphate fertilizer is rising, and the price of high phosphorus wheat is still upward. Recently, the stacking and disposal of phosphogypsum has become the heart disease of most phosphorus fertilizer enterprises in Hubei Province. The environmental protection inspection in Henan Province is also more stringent. Some phosphorus fertilizer enterprises have been shutting down for 10 days. Some small ammonium plants have gradually increased due to the high pressure of raw material cost. Some small factories have actually accepted to leave the factory for 2180 yuan/ton, and Hubei Province is large. Fifty-five percent ammonium powder factory acceptance factory in 2200 yuan / ton, the main pre-order, most enterprises are bullish expectations, and diammonium enterprises pending export orders to the end of September, and start work less than 50%, domestic demand for diammonium, there is still room for price increases. The rising price of phosphate fertilizer brings confidence to the compound fertilizer. Recently, some compound fertilizer enterprises in Jiangsu and Hebei have raised the price of autumn fertilizer slightly, especially the price of high-phosphorus compound fertilizer. The main export price of 45% chlorine-based high-phosphorus compound fertilizer has risen to about 2200-2250 yuan per ton.

Finally, the signing of India's potash contract brings a little confidence to the domestic potash fertilizer. The price of potash fertilizer will rise by 50 US dollars. At least the amount of the large contract signed by China will be similar. Then the domestic potash price will be stable, the price of nitrogen, phosphorus and potassium will be fully supported, and the demand for fertilizer will be fully started in autumn. According to the survey of China Chemical Fertilizer Network, the raw material cost of compound fertilizer has risen by about 30 yuan/ton on average compared with last week. The raw material cost of 45% chlorine-high nitrogen/high phosphorus Wheat Fertilizer (25:14:6/18:22:5) is about 1875/1887 (using urea) respectively, plus the additional cost of 200-250 yuan/ton, the current compound fertilizer enterprises will benefit. The profit margin is not large, although the downstream does not accept the rise of quotation, but the pressure of cost also restricts some enterprises to raise the price of wheat fertilizer.

In the second half of each year, especially in September, the environmental protection will continue to upgrade. If the environmental protection continues to strengthen this year, until the autumn fertilizer surplus demand starts, raw material prices continue to be strong, then part of the shortage of compound fertilizer enterprise quotation will not be impossible to rise 30-50 yuan / ton. Of course, do not exclude individual enterprises to introduce low price impact on the market, the world is unpredictable.