Halfway through September, urea and liquid ammonia are still in the "golden nine" market, and the recent trend still seems optimistic, the focus of production on each other to achieve mutual completion and mutual success, such as the recent case, directly support the two prices rise. At present, the price of urea from the main producing areas of many places in China is around 2000 yuan (ton price, the same below). The price of urea from low-priced areas such as Xinjiang Urea Export and peripheral factory is about 1500-1580 yuan. The high price of urea in Inner Mongolia has reached 1880 yuan. The price of urea from the main producing areas of Shanxi Province is controlled by around 1960 yuan, but at this time the price is controlled. At the same time, the price of liquid ammonia is higher than the "horizon", such as the reference price of liquid ammonia mainstream acceptance transaction in Hebei rose to about 3350-3500 yuan, the reference price of Shandong mainstream foreign exchange transaction factory was about 3380-3480 yuan, and the price of Hubei mainstream acceptance factory rose to about 3330-3350 yuan. It's not far away from the 4000 yuan mark. Whether or not we can break this barrier is also the focus of the market.

The price of urea and liquid ammonia is considerable, but once the production center of gravity changes, it may lead to a certain pressure on one side of the shipment, the price of the "cat and mouse game" may continue to play.

On the one hand, look at the specific situation and trend of urea. Under the high pressure of environmental protection, some urea enterprises are still shrouded in the "2+26" staggered peak production, uncontrollable factors will continue to lead to urea enterprises operating rate can only be low shocks; the limited supply of natural gas in Inner Mongolia, Southwest China market, gas shortage, high prices are affecting some urea enterprises operating rate to maintain reluctantly low. The impact on urea shipments will be more pronounced, with the urea industry operating at a lower rate in the second half of the year, with the best condition being to maintain a slightly higher level of 50% at the present time; and the urea industry's pre-orders plus the local part. Pre-speculation also affects prices; domestic agricultural urea demand is off-season, industry still has some support; finally, the price of liquid ammonia is at a high level, the urea market is also obvious support, if urea prices fall, can still rely on liquid ammonia to support its shipment volume and price improvement.

On the other hand, look at the trend of liquid ammonia. Since the beginning of September, the domestic ammonia price has been rising all the way, and many of the increase in the 130-300 yuan or so, repeatedly refreshed the industry's high price forecast, manufacturers are worried about "the higher the station, the more miserable the fall", while enjoying the high price for a long time not seen. The trend in the latter period was analyzed from both supply and demand. On the supply side, the environmental protection scope was wide, and some enterprises were affected, such as Shanxi, Hubei, Henan and so on. For a long time, the amount of ammonia emitted by enterprises was less; on the other hand, some liquid ammonia enterprises had trouble-shooting; on the other hand, the methanol market was hot and the price was constantly rising, and more factory prices were affected. About 3100 - 3300 yuan, some of the enterprises will focus on this production; 4. urea market moderate development, local prices have been raised, relative to corporate profits, some enterprises prefer more urea and less liquid ammonia. Demand is restricted by environmental inspection, downstream enterprises are also affected by the start-up of a certain degree, the demand for chemicals is slightly pessimistic, and fertilizer slightly better, the price of phosphate fertilizer is high and there is still an upward trend, enterprise start-up as far as possible to maintain a high level, compound fertilizer cost pressure is greater, but the price has been slowly raised, the start-up is also slower. Slow recovery, for the purchase of liquid ammonia can be expected.

Overall, urea and liquid ammonia continue to dominate the market in the short term, but too late, if you want to keep prices rising and achieve, and to maintain both can be relatively high prices, there will continue to be a "cat and mouse game".