This year, there is an early sign of chemical fertilizer storage. In previous years, it was generally not until September and October that the manufacturers promulgated the policy of light storage. However, in mid and late 8 this year, news came out that some enterprises in northeast part of the company were holding a meeting of dealers. Even individual enterprises have issued a light reserve offer, which is more than 1 months ahead of schedule.

Why do we start running early this year?

Firstly, in order to seize the market share ahead of time and absorb funds for the preparation of later production; secondly, the prices of nitrogen, phosphorus and potassium raw materials are at a high level, especially the early urea prices all the way red, greatly enhancing the confidence of the downstream fertilizer preparation, at this time quotation is conducive to collection; thirdly, compound fertilizer enterprises are in fierce competition. In order to mobilize the enthusiasm of downstream fertilizer preparation, but also to better pave the way for sales in advance, a small number of enterprises to attract downstream attention at low prices.

Zhou Dongping, chairman of Hunan Toyota Agricultural Co., Ltd., said that the recent price rise of some agricultural products also has a certain relationship. Vegetable prices have risen since the end of July. In particular, some time ago, it was affected by typhoon rainfall, and the rise was enhanced. According to the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Areas Information Center, the average price of 19 vegetables in the wholesale markets of 286 producing and selling areas in China has risen for eight consecutive weeks from early July to late August. In addition, the prices of some Chinese herbal medicines have also increased greatly, and individual varieties have hit a new high in the past 10 years. The rising prices of agricultural products have helped to mobilize farmers'enthusiasm for planting. Some dealers are optimistic about the fertilizer market next year and consequently store them in advance.

Last year's money making effect is also an important reason why dealers are willing to take delivery ahead of schedule.

According to a dealer in Shandong Province, the urea factory price in August last year was as low as 1,450 yuan (tonnage price, the same below), and then all the way up. Especially in December last year, due to the shortage of natural gas supply, gas urea plant shutdown in a large area, within a month the urea price rose by 300 yuan, the highest ex-factory price more than 2000 yuan. This made the dealer who had made light storage at that time lucrative, earning 400~500 yuan per ton easily.

"But this year there will be no more opportunities." The dealer said, "It's very difficult for urea prices to reach last year's low, and now it seems very difficult to fall below 1,800 yuan. In the second half of last year, the highest price of urea was nearly 600 yuan. This year, the price difference is difficult to reach 200 yuan.

Industry insiders remind that dealers should be cautious even though it looks profitable at the moment.

According to the China Association for the Circulation of Agricultural Production Means, the fertilizer price composite index in early September was 213.4 points, up 15.1% year on year. The higher the price, the greater the risk. Zhou Dongping said that some dealers were anxious to store up, mainly worried that they could not get the goods later. "In fact, China's fertilizer production capacity is very large, nitrogen and phosphorus fertilizer overcapacity rate is more than 20%, compound fertilizer overcapacity rate is more than 40%, as long as full horsepower production, the source of goods is no problem. Of course, environmental factors now have a greater impact, but many chemical fertilizer enterprises have strengthened environmental protection, to achieve emission standards. Moreover, due to the construction of gas storage in advance, the possibility of extreme natural gas supply is unlikely this winter. " Zhou Dongping said.

"Although last year, there were many dealers in the light storage and profit making business, but some people also lost money. As the market peaked in December last year, and dealers chased high inventories, it was not until April this year that sales were at a loss. This lesson should be learned. " Hu Bo, general manager of Guangdong Guangdong agricultural material company, reminded.