The traditional fertilizer market in September has been more than half of the gold, through the period before the crazy rise, at this stage seems to enter the "recuperation" stage, although the overall price is high, but the active market atmosphere has been flat, local prices can not stimulate too much spray. Agricultural demand in terminal areas is basically stagnant, and industrial demand is one of the key factors in the current situation; from the perspective of industrial and agricultural demand, it can be said that one side is defending the other side, and the space for dealers to operate seems to be limited, so the next trend will be how to proceed, in addition to looking at demand, the focus should be paid attention to. The adjustment of the operating rate of urea enterprises and the degree of conversion between related products such as liquid ammonia.

The trend of supply is decreasing or decreasing. According to the statistics of China Chemical Fertilizer Network, the overall industrial start-up rate of urea enterprises is about 53.72%, and with the start of "2+26" production restriction in early October, the start-up of some chemical fertilizer and chemical enterprises in Fenhe Plain and other surrounding areas will be restricted; the shortage of natural gas supply, such as some urea enterprises in Inner Mongolia region said in the end of October. The urea plant will have to stop because of the restriction of gas. In addition, some urea enterprises in southwest China will also face the same problem. In the second half of the year, the startup of central heating will lead to the rise of coal prices and other factors, which will inevitably lead to the reduction of the overall urea industry start-up rate and the supply of urea in the market. The volume will also decrease significantly, which will undoubtedly support the possibility that urea prices will remain stable or up.

Agricultural demand in the off-season, industrial needs of certain support.

The most difficult part of the urea market is that the agricultural demand is in the off-season, the largest flow of urea is lack of support, many markets show only sporadic urea demand, so the overall purchasing enthusiasm in the terminal market is low, the purchasing volume is small, and the enthusiasm of dealers is not high; especially the high urea price, some provinces or agricultural capital. The company's operating mentality has changed, first, the overall demand is limited, second, the operating profit space is limited, third, the price is high risk. On the contrary, the industrial market has become a certain advantage to support the urea market for the time being. First, the demand for compound fertilizer in autumn, the demand for raw materials for light fertilizer storage, second, some demand for plywood factories and other aspects, third, the successive receipt of power plants, some dealers said that the volume can still be maintained.

Identity interchange in production of urea and liquid ammonia cogeneration plant.

Recently, the domestic liquid ammonia market is in general, local prices have fallen, and with the approaching of the Mid-Autumn Festival and the Eleventh Holiday, the local market may be due to transport constraints and lead to price downward pressure, but in the second half of the year, the rate of operation, natural gas, heating after the coal or tension, environmental protection and other factors, liquid ammonia production. The overall industry start-up rate of enterprises can only linger at a low level, the late market trend is not too bad, if the urea market down, there is strong support for liquid ammonia, now most of the main domestic production areas of liquid ammonia cash / acceptance ex-factory quotations are around 3100-3400 yuan / ton, if urea in the latter period of the obvious downturn, some enterprises The industry will focus on liquid ammonia production moderately tilted, then the urea price will have a "back-up", so as not to fall too bleak.

International bidding for urea has boosted the domestic market.

Simply put, the recent international market for urea is more active, Pakistan issued a tender for the purchase of 100,000 tons of urea on October 15, which to some extent activates the enthusiasm of domestic urea exports.

All in all, the urea market is good, but the only one that is expected or most reliable is the start-up rate, but the biggest negative is from the agricultural demand side, especially the lack of urea storage without too much expectation, is the most worrying uncertainty, or can be said to be a certain negative, and so on. The down urea market can not reach the "rising" state, but subject to negative factors, it is expected that in the short term the stalemate operation of the market mainly, only a small increase in part to "recuperate", and then "carry the weight forward".