In late September, the compound fertilizer market entered the end of the demand for autumn fertilizer, the market demand has been more than half of the autumn fertilizer reserve has been in place for most dealers, but this time of the year, demand swept the tail, it is compound fertilizer prices gradually fall back, why compound fertilizer prices this year did not fall but rose, driving compound fertilizer prices up. Who is the real behind the scenes staff?

First of all, raw material prices are "the culprit". The recent rise in raw material prices is stunning, especially the rise in urea is the most ferocious compound fertilizer raw materials, now Shandong small particle urea factory price has risen 2020-2030 yuan / ton, only a month from the beginning of August 1820 yuan / ton all the way up to 2030 yuan / ton, the increase rate Up to 200 yuan / ton, on the one hand, industrial demand warmed up; on the one hand, international export orders have been good, on the other hand, urea enterprises operating rate continues to be limited, plus the later natural gas will be transferred to civilian use, industrial supply constraints and other news release, making the recent urea market hot; potassium chloride contract has been signed, up to 60 U.S. dollars. The rate of arrival is still not visible, the high price of potassium chloride in the short term is still relatively strong, and the price of Monoammonium is also running at a high level. Compared with August, the cost of compound fertilizer is visible, so the compound fertilizer enterprises close to the cost quotation have to raise the price slightly, by 50-100 yuan per ton.

Second, the lag of demand has become the "backbone". According to the progress of previous years, the demand for fertilizer in autumn has come to an end at this time, and the demand for fertilizer in the latter period is very few. However, fertilizer preparation in the lower reaches of this year has been slow and wait-and-see mood has always existed. Most areas of wheat used fertilizer in early October, then the demand has been postponed to the present, south of the Yellow River, the progress is faster, the surplus demand is not large, but Huang There is still a lot of surplus demand in the north of the river, especially in the central plains. The lower reaches of the river have to pick up the goods. Most of the compound fertilizer enterprises have more pre-orders, pending orders have not yet been completed.

Once again, environmental restrictions start, and local supply is tight. According to the incomplete survey of China Chemical Fertilizer Network, most of the large-scale compound fertilizer enterprises are only about 51%, and a few enterprises in Northeast China have resumed construction. However, the starting rate of compound fertilizer enterprises in Shandong Lianghe and other places is mostly about 40%, and these two areas are the areas with relatively large surplus of fertilizer demand in autumn, so the enterprises. The shortage of stocks and the shortage of shipments exist, which also gives the compound fertilizer price rise a sufficient reason. Although the lower level of acceptance of the price rise is low, the compound fertilizer enterprise price rise driven by many factors is not empty.

Finally, we need to prepare for the late winter storage quotas. At this point, the demand for autumn fertilizers is gradually moving towards the end of the sweeping stage, most of the early orders of enterprises to the end, then this stage of price increases, first, in the cost, demand driven up the quotation; second, in order to provide a precondition for the late winter storage compound fertilizer quotation increases, the quotation increases after more conducive to the introduction of compound fertilizer enterprises. Winter storage policy, attracting downstream withdrawals, so this year's compound fertilizer work ahead of schedule signs are very obvious.