In the late October, the cold weather in the North means a farewell to a short autumn. At present, the autumn fertilizer market in various parts of China has basically ended, there is only sporadic replenishment demand in some areas, and the order execution of enterprises has almost been swept to the end. Relatively speaking, the amount of wheat fertilizer used in many fields this autumn has not significantly decreased compared with previous years, but the overall market process is not ideal, and the centralized release stage of downstream demand has been delayed.

The main reason why the autumn fertilizer market repeats the same mistake is that the price of raw materials has been soaring this year, the cost of compound fertilizer has increased substantially, and the upstream and downstream fertilizers are in trouble at the same time. According to China Fertilizer Network, up to now, 45% of the general-purpose products, for example, the raw material cost of nitrogen, phosphorus and potassium as much as 2250 yuan (tonnage price, the same below), more than 200 yuan over the same period last year. Although the raw material market is good, but the next winter storage quotation can not surface, showing a "authorities fan" state.

First, the market for raw materials is unknown. In the second half of the year, the price of chemical fertilizers rose mainly, and the price of raw materials rose in a straight line, reaching a historical high level. Not only does raw material price break through the new high, but the market is also ups and downs. At present, the price of all kinds of fertilizers is high collectively, except urea, phosphorus, potassium fertilizer market is relatively stable, but the future trend is not easy to speculate. The first reason is that the policy control is strengthened, and the word "environmental protection" is believed to be familiar to everyone. Restricted by the periodic inspection of environmental protection, some enterprises began to produce. In addition, the supply of natural gas for civil use in autumn and winter may be reduced correspondingly. The second reason is that the impact on the international market is deepening, and the fertilizer quotations and tendering situation in foreign markets have also played a role in the development and changes of the domestic market, which has been propelled by the favorable printing of tenders recently. Domestic urea prices are rising.

Secondly, downstream demand is weak. With the end of the autumn fertilizer market, the winter storage curtain is about to open, often the market early start-up speed is very slow, the market process is not smooth, the enterprise and downstream stock situation presents a stalemate, the overall market demand is weak, obvious, the reason is first, the grass-roots purchasing power is insufficient, now in the autumn harvest season, by. Due to the impact of natural disasters in the early stage, crop yields in some areas may be greatly reduced, and the price level of field crops has not been significantly improved. Therefore, the profit of grass-roots planting is limited. The second reason is that the awareness of dilute storage in the lower reaches has been weakened. The dilute storage market used to be an extremely important stage of the market, but in recent years, the fertilizer market has been very important. The market is unpredictable, dealers are more and more risk of reserve ahead of time, seasonal demand is approaching when the phenomenon of demand-on-demand increases, so the downstream demand in the phase of light storage has decreased slightly.

Finally, the market competition intensified. Fertilizer market development can be said to be changing with each passing day, new fertilizers emerge in endlessly, market prices are uneven. The more intense the market competition, the greater the price gap. Traditional brand fertilizer prices are more transparent, competitiveness is not obvious; new low-content formula fertilizer with its price advantage gradually occupies the market; in addition, the more local fertilizer factories are built, the brand is "dazzling". Taking Northeast China as an example, the price of real estate mixed fertilizer is on the low side, and it has been accepted by more grassroots units under the condition of high overall fertilizer price. The price chaos of compound fertilizer not only hinders the market process, but also makes the introduction of the price of conventional products difficult, leading to the early season enterprises to choose more cautious operation, wait-and-see.

In summary, it is inevitable that the raw material market will boost the price of compound fertilizer in the short term. However, in the face of upstream supply and downstream demand, winter storage quotations in most areas are still in suspense and are expected to start next month or will gradually become clear.