In recent autumn, the rigid demand of all the mainstream fertilizers has been gradually weakened. However, due to the remaining winter fertilizer reserves, all the major fertilizer quotations are relatively high, and the urea quotations have also been strongly rebounded in the near future. As of Saturday, the main Urea Export quotations in Shandong Province have risen to 2150-2170 yuan (t price, same below), and the urea prices in Hebei Province have risen to 2150-2170 yuan (t price). Mainstream ex-factory quotations of 2170-2190 yuan and so on, urea quotations in various regions continue to rise, but in addition to some of the industrial demand, most of the agricultural traders in the near future purchasing efforts are relatively low, because the current winter storage season has not yet entered, and the price continues to rise, dealers input costs are relatively high, and the grass-roots really fertilizer season. Need to wait until next year after the Spring Festival, due to a longer time span, purchasing progress is slightly slow, and even some traders said: in previous years, winter reserves still have a profit, but in recent years, the shorter the time of winter reserves, the lower the risk. So what are the factors that make urea price high? The following statistics are obtained from a separate industry:

First, the adjustment and transformation and upgrading of the domestic urea industry. In recent years, environmental inspection has become a normalization, some factories are restricted by environmental impact start-up temporarily low or stop production overhaul, supporting environmental protection equipment also makes some enterprises urea costs up, and some enterprises began to produce new urea, combined with the above factors, although the domestic urea production capacity is still at present. It is higher than the domestic apparent consumption, but it has been significantly reduced compared with previous years, the supply pressure of enterprises has eased, the price of the operable space has increased, so although the current downstream reception level is generally, but enterprises based on their own supply pressure is relatively light, the quotation is properly raised.

Second, the recent export support efforts are acceptable. During the National Day period, due to the early termination of the bidding in India, and the sudden halt in the supply of Iranian goods, domestic urea quotations increased substantially. Although there was a wave of decline after the National Day, it is not difficult to find that urea quotations from urea enterprises around the export port are higher than those from other regions, that is to say, the export surplus temperature still exists, but offshore. The exchange rate also plays a supporting role in the domestic quotation.

Finally, natural gas will soon enter the stage of limited supply. Last year, urea prices rose sharply because of the limited supply of natural gas. At present, some gas-head enterprises in Xinjiang have entered the stage of shutdown. Other gas-head enterprises also have the possibility of reducing or limiting production after entering November. Sellers limit the supply to ensure that there is still supply after the shutdown or production restriction, the enterprise sells a strong mentality, so the quotation is relatively high operation.

In conclusion, the current urea price, urea market stalemate will continue for some time, pulled by the above factors, urea quotation should be high in the near future, even if the quotation slightly lower, but the expected space should not be large, speculators operating space is too narrow, the urea market is expected to conclude new orders in the short term The amount should be less.