Recent urea market weakening, quotation has fallen, today there is a slight rebound, the current price of urea in Linyi District, Shandong Province, 2150 yuan (ton price, the same below). At present, there is little demand for urea in agriculture, and there is no demand for urea fertilizer in all parts of the country. Winter wheat topdressing in Central Plains and other places will also wait until the beginning of next spring. Because of the high price of urea, distributors say that most of the reserved winter wheat green-turning fertilizer is high nitrogen compound fertilizer or other nitrogen fertilizer. Next year, the demand for urea will be reduced. Urea industry demand is also relatively light, recently compound fertilizer enterprises are mostly in the maintenance stage, the overall start-up rate is less than 40%, for urea purchasing intention is small, mainly on demand. Although urea is in a declining position, but the factory profits are still more, at least more than 200 yuan, in fact, urea is not "difficult".

The situation of ammonium monoxide and urea is different. Although the price of ammonium is expected to rise, it has some good support, but it is difficult to accept it downstream. Last week, some ammonium enterprises in Sichuan and Henan took the lead in raising the quotation of 55% ammonium powder by 50 yuan to 2400 yuan. This week, some enterprises in Hubei also raised the quotation of 55% ammonium powder by 50 yuan to 2400 yuan. Although the quotation is not significant for the time being, the enterprises still have the remaining quantity to be issued, but it can be seen that the enterprises are bullish on ammonium powder, and some traders are also looking at it at the recent stage. Good mono ammonium.

_However, after receiving the news, the actual transaction of Monoammonium in individual enterprises has been reduced by 50 yuan after the price increase, and people in the industry are slightly confused. What are the hidden dangers of weakening the market of Monoammonium when there are relatively more favorable factors? What changes have taken place in these two weeks?

I think the first priority is demand. After National Day, some compound mast factories and traders purchased ammonium in advance for winter storage, ranging from thousands to tens of thousands of tons. In the past two weeks, the new purchasing activities of compound fertilizer enterprises have slowed down. Some enterprises are waiting for the ammonium purchased earlier to be shipped to the factory. It is reported that the recent transportation of ammonium in Hubei is slightly difficult. The rising oil price and the local orange harvest have caused fewer vehicles to transport ammonium. Compound fertilizer enterprises are busy rushing for goods and there is no new one. The procurement plan, together with the near Phosphorus and Compound Fertilizer Conference, and the recent start of low-level compound fertilizer enterprises, compound fertilizer enterprises mainly watch the market, procurement will be more cautious.

Also need to pay attention to the terminal market situation, food prices are not high, distributors around the winter storage enthusiasm is not high, a small amount of money to purchase compound fertilizer in the early stage, the recent market is light, waiting for the phosphorus compound fertilizer conference before and after the winter storage policy is clear, considering the purchase of compound fertilizer according to market conditions. Compound fertilizer enterprises also pay more attention to the collection of winter storage fertilizer, also related to the timing and quantity of raw materials procurement and other factors.

The cost of raw materials is also important. After the National Day, the port sulphur market is gradually depressed, the demand support is insufficient, TRADERS'selling psychology is strengthened, and the price of sulphur is declining. Although the seller's wait-and-see mentality reappears at the end of the month, the price of granular sulphur in Yangtze River Port and Fangcheng Port has risen somewhat, but the price of granular sulphur in Yangtze River Port and Fangcheng Port has dropped nearly 150 yuan to 1410 yuan compared with the end After Hong Kong's price rose, it fell back to 1470 yuan. Insiders in the industry saw a large decrease in sulphur, which shaken their confidence in the rise of ammonium price slightly. Recently, synthetic ammonia in some areas has also begun to decline, Shandong has a larger decline. In recent days, liquid ammonia in Hubei, the main producing area of monoammonium, has also been downgraded. Although it is still at a high level, the market climate is not ideal.

In conclusion, some aspects of ammonium demand and raw materials have negative effects. The price of ammonium may fluctuate in a narrow range. Fertilizer market situation before and after the conference of phosphate and compound fertilizer is awaited. In the later stage, we need to pay attention to the impact of environmental protection inspection on the rate of start-up of ammonium, the collection of compound fertilizer after the policy of winter storage becomes clear, and so on. Whether the phosphorus compound fertilizer conference will bring sulfur recovery and so on.