Is the urea falling down for a week is waiting for a chance to create a chance to rebound? At present, the overall urea market is consolidating at a high level, although there is a small rebound in part, but the turnover is still weak; in this wave of decline time, the market at all levels falls in varying degrees, such as the overall decline in Shandong Province is about 30 yuan/ton, Hebei is about the same, there are also local grassroots Market falls more. Large, such as the Sichuan region, the delivery price of some industrial vehicle boards dropped 100 yuan / ton to 2000 yuan / ton. However, no, the urea market is delicate in the near future. The focus of attention in the industry, or the point of speculation, has gradually emerged, such as environmental protection "looking back", such as the staggered peak production in Jincheng, Shanxi, such as gas limitation or high price gas, etc. Local urea prices have risen tentatively, such as the urea receiving price in Linyi, Shandong Province. Small rise to 2140-2170 yuan / ton, then the recent opportunistic action can come true? Let's look down.

It is understood that the environmental protection "look back" inspection scope is wider, including Liaoning, Jilin, Shanxi, Shaanxi, Anhui, Shandong, Lianghu, Sichuan and Guizhou, as is in full swing, some urea enterprises in Jincheng District of Shanxi staggered peak production, and a few urea enterprises in Inner Mongolia due to the impact of natural gas limits, urea. The urea plant has been shut down recently, and some gas-head urea enterprises in Southwest China are also suffering from the impact of high-price gas. The cost pressure is high. Due to gas limitation, individual urea enterprises in Gansu, Ningxia and other places should limit or stop production of urea plants until the beginning of next year, the overall supply of urea has decreased. According to the statistics of China Chemical Fertilizer Network, the overall industry start-up rate of urea enterprises has dropped to 53.08% so far, and it is expected that it will be lower than that if it is developed accordingly.

In addition, urea enterprises have sufficient low-price orders at the time of price reduction, and the price of liquid ammonia in the previous period is high. Most enterprises have shifted their production focus to liquid ammonia to support urea prices to stay at a higher level all the time. Moreover, the market of ammonium chloride for small nitrogen fertilizer is very good this year, although it always looks at urea before chlorine. Ammonium chloride, on the contrary, the trend of ammonium chloride should also affect the amount of urea to some extent. Some compound fertilizer enterprises or mixed fertilizer enterprises will choose powdered ammonium chloride and extruded granular ammonium chloride as raw materials instead of urea, which will reduce the cost and expenditure, and also ease the pressure of compound fertilizer enterprises.

But whether the price of urea can rebound depends on demand, of course. On the one hand, agricultural dilution storage risk is high, terminal dilution mood is not high, large agricultural distributors only "cold" low-cost urea, small and medium-sized agricultural merchants or terminal grassroots aspects of urea reserve is "worry", urea prices are high, dilution storage significance is not significant, and considering the sufficient supply of urea, later can be used with picking. In industry, plywood factories are in the off-season when they encounter cold winter. In addition, under the restriction of environmental protection, the start-up rate of plywood factories is not high and the demand for urea is reduced. Compound fertilizer factories are also affected by environmental protection inspection and start-up is reduced. In addition, the policy of winter storage is slow, the sales of compound fertilizers is poor, and the advance harvest is slow, which results in compound fertilizer enterprises. Pressure is high. According to the statistics of China Chemical Fertilizer Network, the overall industry start-up rate of compound fertilizer enterprises is only about 33.86%, and in a short time there is no sign of a return to normal level, so the demand for raw materials is not optimistic.

Generally speaking, the overall rebound of urea market still needs a loss of time to endure. It should be a rational fall in high price to reach a psychological expectation of bottom-reading at the terminal. With the approaching of phosphate compound fertilizer conference, and the impact of environmental production restriction, gas restriction or high price gas on cost, it is estimated that the manufacturers still have supporting factors to fry. We expect to wait for the opportunity and the low price will rebound.