The urea market has gone through a tortuous process in October, urea manufacturers must be full of such a sentence in their hearts: urea is not afraid of price increases, fear of repetition! When the price increases, urea manufacturers want to control the receipt appropriately, or delay the execution of the previous low-priced orders. Distributors want a price increase similar to that in August-September, so they can make a profit while the price increases.

In fact, the price increase of urea in early October was just a flash in the pan. It really wasted a lot of energy of our urea producers! uuuuuuuuuuuuu The basis of the three price increases since October is too unreliable. The international Indian bidding is a little weak. After all, the demand of domestic industrial compound fertilizer enterprises is a little poor. The domestic urea output of 150,000 tons per day is also a little high. Moreover, the Indian bidding has slipped away from China. Like recent recent ups and downs, the repetition of ups and downs is most tangled.

Those who are not allowed to admonish can be followed. Let bygones be bygones. Next, we urea producers can stop rushing in. For example, the next gas restrictions, the rising price of natural gas and the possible price increase of coal will all fall to the ground. Although these factors are all good, the daily output of urea may be reduced to less than 110,000 tons by the end of the year (December 2017). At that time, the starting rate was only 43-45%, but we should not be too optimistic about urea prices, nor should we expect Shandong to reach 2400-2500 yuan per ton or so.

Of course, it is not too pessimistic. It will be a fact that the urea start-up rate will be reduced one after another. The relationship between environmental protection inspection and air quality monitoring. Recently, urea manufacturers in Shandong, Hebei and Shanxi provinces have been asked to stagger peak production and limit gas. At present, a factory in Inner Mongolia has stopped production, and a factory in Gansu Province has also reduced its load to the lowest level. There are two other urea plants in Inner Mongolia. The plants will also be shut down by the end of November, and the natural gas urea plants in Southwest China will be temporarily shut down at any time according to the supply of natural gas (the supply of natural gas has been determined to be reduced by tens of thousands of square meters). One variable factor is that this year is a warm winter. The supply of natural gas in the first two years is bad. This year, we have made some preparations. Next, the landing situation of natural gas restriction and the specific situation of urea manufacturers producing more liquid ammonia and methanol or more urea under environmental protection inspection need to be observed.

After talking about the low opening rate of urea manufacturers, we need to talk about domestic demand and foreign trade.

_After winter, the start-up rate of compound fertilizer enterprises is particularly critical. The production time of storing fertilizer in winter this year is indeed slightly ahead of schedule. As of November 2, the start-up rate of compound fertilizer industry has risen by about 1.2% weekly. The purchase demand of industrial power plants is still on schedule, without increase or decrease. Industrial plywood factories have entered the off-season of production. The real estate industry is on the decline, and the demand for industrial plywood factories is also decreasing. In short, the demand for industry is good, but it is not obvious.

_Agricultural demand, whether large agricultural companies or small and medium-sized distributors, their operations are becoming more cautious, especially those who take goods when prices rise in early October. These people feel that they are losing money. They will wait and wait until prices rebound again before new operations take place. Of course, shortly after that, some farmers may withdraw from the operation of dilution, and some people may have to make certain purchases because of the dilution policy. However, some small and medium-sized distributors believe that there is still a chance to operate urea because big agricultural companies do not take much goods. In short, agricultural needs are half happy.

The international market is good, but now it is dark before dawn. After India's bidding campaign on October 5th, it is natural cooling and India intentionally let the international market cool down. China's off-shore urea price has dropped to US$322-327 per ton. The subsequent advantage is obvious. India may hold a new one after November 15th or 20th. The tender for urea purchasing has a gap of about 600-1 million tons. Although it is still unknown whether urea can be imported from Iran, India still needs the supply of Chinese urea besides the Iranian urea transferred to China. We can still get a piece of it, and then cooperate with the low start-up rate of urea industry in China. The rise in prices is a matter of course. Only up to 2,200 yuan/ton in the first ten days of October, or much higher than the level at that time, need our careful monitoring and control.

In a word, urea is not afraid of rising prices. It is afraid of repetition. It is afraid of ups and downs in the market. This is the case at this stage. When prices rise, don't be too crazy to get goods, nor too anxious to sell, good mentality, especially for the surrounding urea arrival and pre-arrival have a certain estimate, how to operate is profitable.