To date, the late quotation and policy of winter storage have caused a lot of complaints in the market. Under the influence of factors such as unstable raw material market, sluggish downstream demand and unknown production situation, most market participants said that they expected the above factors to be relatively stable after the conference, and the price and policy of winter storage would be clear immediately. Lang, however, as far as the current situation is concerned, this statement may not be very "accurate", and the specific launch time is still full of suspense.

It is well known that the main factors affecting the fertilizer market are price, demand and supply. At present, the winter storage market is "constrained" by the above factors, so it can not advance rapidly. It is worth mentioning that recent weather conditions may also affect the future direction of winter storage. It is understood that the rainwater situation in all parts of the country presenting the overall form of "south waterlogging and North drought", in which the north is represented by Henan, Shandong and other places, and the drought is serious in part during autumn, while the south is represented by Guangdong, Fujian and other places, with successive typhoons passing through, leading to frequent floods and waterlogging disasters in some areas.

First, drought and waterlogging forced the autumn seed link to be postponed. Recently, I heard that Typhoon Yutu, the 26th of this year, is approaching strongly, and the southeast coastal areas are facing the attack of super typhoon again. Heavy storms and rainstorms will stop normal farming activities and destroy their orderly planting environment. In addition, since late September, the rainfall in Huanghuaihai region has been on the low side, the temperature is on the high side and the local area is on the high side. The drought has appeared. The continuation of drought not only brings adverse effects on the emergence of Winter Wheat in Central Plains and other places, but also delays the sowing time of wheat in some areas due to excessive drought. Therefore, the sowing season of wheat lags behind, and the autumn fertilizer market can not be completely ended, or will restrict the start of winter storage market to a certain extent.

Secondly, drought and flood disasters impede downstream fertilizer preparation activities. On the one hand, the drought and flood disasters in many areas delayed the autumn planting, on the other hand, weakened the confidence of the downstream winter reserve goods. In recent years, the original grain price has been at a low level, and the grass-roots agricultural income is very small. Under the plague of natural disasters, crop yield reduction and crop rejection often occur, and local losses are serious. In order to avoid risks, some downstream areas are very cautious in preparing for farming, and their desire to start is not strong. The downstream demand can not be released in large quantities all the time. Enterprises are not sure about the purchasing psychology of distributors for a while. Therefore, they dare not bid rashly and have to be careful and operate cautiously while watching.

Finally, human factors also slow down the winter storage market. According to a report released by the Ministry of Ecology and Environment on October 29, the second batch of central environmental protection inspectors will be launched in an all-round way recently. Five central environmental protection inspectors have been set up, which are responsible for conducting "back-looking" inspections in Shanxi, Liaoning, Jilin, Anhui, Shandong, Hubei, Hunan, Sichuan, Guizhou and Shaanxi provinces respectively. Stationed in work. Once the pressure of environmental protection increases in some areas, the start-up of fertilizer enterprises is worrying. During the critical period of winter storage, the decline of production capacity will inevitably restrict enterprises to take orders. Therefore, the re-attack of "environmental protection army" will delay the process of winter storage market to a certain extent.

To sum up, the current "South Waterlogging and North Drought" weather conditions do play a negative role in accelerating the process of winter storage in some areas, but combined with the current raw material market and supply and demand situation, it is expected that the winter storage quotation of compound fertilizer after the Phosphorus Compound Fertilizer Conference may not be immediately clear.