The domestic urea market has continued to decline weakly since the weekend, while liquid ammonia has warmed up. For example, the prices of some urea manufacturers in eastern China have fallen by about 10-30 yuan/ton, while some liquid ammonia manufacturers in Hebei have insufficient base gas to raise prices. However, they have also made a strong counterattack of 100 yuan/ton to 3090-3330 yuan/ton, while urea is only envious. Urea fell due to poor demand of workers and peasants, terminal conflict, weak storage, and large urea stock at the grass-roots level. The rebound of liquid ammonia was due to the shift of production focus to urea to ease the pressure of shipment. It can be imagined that the play of mutual harm between the two plays again, falling into the "Go" like black and white fighting world. In such a state, how the two markets develop depends on the mutual game of favorable and negative factors, who will lose and who will win.

Lihao: Urea - under gas limitation and environmental protection, urea enterprises start low-level operation. Limited natural gas supply, some urea enterprises affected by this, resulting in production load can only be forced to stay at a low level, in addition, high-price gas led to increased production cost pressure of urea enterprises; heating period, the impact of coal prices at a high level, coal head urea enterprise cost pressure is not low. Under the strict inspection of environmental protection "looking back", the production is often limited or shut down due to the restriction of multiple duplication. In addition, haze weather may occur in some areas, and some urea enterprises will stop because of this restriction. The supply of urea in the comprehensive market will hardly increase or decrease. Liquid ammonia - Whether the situation of Tailai comes true or not. Recently, the urea market is relatively rigid, and the market is relatively good relative to liquid ammonia. As a result, some enterprises have shifted their production focus to urea slightly. The weak rebound of liquid ammonia has resulted in the rebound of bottoming after a large fall in prices in many places. For example, the price of urea has increased by 100 yuan/ton in North China, relative to urea prices, transportation and reserves. Enterprises have more advantages in producing liquid ammonia, so by virtue of the price advantage of urea, some manufacturers may slightly tilt the production focus to urea, less liquid ammonia.

Likon: After the urea-phosphorus compound fertilizer conference, no large-scale purchasing of compound fertilizer enterprises was seen, and their own poor sales, slow receipt, slow delivery, which led to slow progress in raw material procurement, and high-price urea operation risk; plywood plant demand is light in off-season, and affected by environmental protection inspection, start-up is affected by Limit. There is no victory in agriculture. Years of experience have prompted dealers and terminal farmers not to "call" for dilute storage, and "pick-as-you-go" is the mainstream mode of operation in the market. Some large agricultural dealers have sufficient supply of urea, but in the off-season, sales are relatively narrow and bear greater pressure on sales. Under the control of environmental protection and high pressure, some ammonia enterprises start work occasionally, and the demand for liquid ammonia will also decrease; the market of methanol is still obviously weakening, the price is falling constantly, and some enterprises of methanol plant shift the production focus to liquid ammonia to reduce the pressure of the methanol market; the product price of some downstream ammonia enterprises will be reduced. As a result, construction was forced to start, the enthusiasm of purchasing liquid ammonia was greatly reduced, and the shipment of liquid ammonia enterprises was still under pressure, and there was downside risk under price fluctuation.

Generally speaking, the positive and negative impacts of urea market stalemate game, although the expectation of the final results of the late restriction, environmental protection and Indian bidding is greater, but the downstream enterprises are also affected by limited gas and environmental protection, and the impact of the bidding results on the urea market in China is still variable, and agriculture. Still cautious, holding down its price, it is expected that there will be some downstream buffer space in the near future. Looking back at urea fall, some enterprises may shift their production focus to liquid ammonia. In addition to the off-season demand of some ammonia enterprises, the sales price of finished products keeps falling, and there is a certain reduction in start-up, so it is difficult to increase the purchasing volume of liquid ammonia. Therefore, in summary, the conversion of urea and liquid ammonia production will continue to play a game, and it is expected that the recent market will be dominated by weakness.