It is worth noting that as an annual fertilizer festival, this year's Phosphorus and Compound Fertilizer Conference does not seem to ignite the enthusiasm of the winter storage market. Since the conference, the progress of winter storage in some areas has not improved significantly. Although the compound fertilizer enterprises are holding intensive distributor meetings and issuing major products and new policies, the mood of holding money downstream still exists and the situation of winter storage and pre-harvest is not good.

At present, the raw material market is mixed, urea and ammonium are no longer in the limelight. The winter storage market cannot be supported by potassium fertilizer alone. The winter storage quotation of compound fertilizer in the future is more and more "mysterious". At present, the pre-harvest prices of enterprises are mostly issued in stages. Once the raw material market is weak, the possibility of the winter storage price going down is non-existent. Often large, coupled with the development and changes of both supply and demand, the next winter storage road can be described as "fear".

First, the cost aspect. According to the statistics of China Fertilizer Network, the cost of pure raw materials of 45% chlorine/sulfur general series is 1970/2250 yuan (ton price, the same below), which is 30-50 yuan lower than that at the beginning of this month. The results of urea bidding in India are becoming clearer and clearer. Its bid price is basically the same as the domestic market level. The proportion of China's supply in the total amount of successful bidding has become the focus of attention. Under the circumstances that the printing of bids and air restrictions have not yet fully landed, the urea market has remained rigid and stable in recent days. As for monoammonium, it is also unsatisfactory, and 55% of powder ammonium in Hubei is reported to be low in some cases. The end quotation is about 2300 yuan, the demand is light, there is still a surplus of orders to be issued, and the market of ammonium is difficult to improve in the short term. Raw materials are weak, the cost support of compound fertilizers is shaking, and the trend of winter storage quotation is doubtful.

Secondly, the demand side. Near December, winter climate has gradually emerged in all parts of the country. Generally speaking, this is the key period of winter storage market, but the downstream demand has not been released effectively. First, this year's winter storage prices are generally high. Taking 45% sulfur-based products as an example, they have risen by 200-300 yuan compared with the same period last year. The grassroots level has limited acceptance capacity for a time and has to watch carefully. Second, in some areas, such as Northeast China and North China, there are more low-priced goods in the early stage, and the follow-up demand is weak. At the beginning of the start of winter storage, some enterprises carried out low-price pre-collection for some parts, and the downstream payment mood was slightly higher. Most distributors had about 20% - 30% of the pre-reserve stock. Since winter storage was promoted, the continuous release of demand has been restrained after the increase of enterprise quotation.

Finally, the supply side. At the beginning of this month, the Central Environmental Protection Group (CEG) moved to some provinces and regions to carry out the work of "looking back" on environmental protection. Under the supervision of "Opinions on Prohibiting All-in-One" on environmental protection, CEG effectively avoided the extreme practice of "one-in-one" and avoided the simple and crude acts of centralized shutdown, shutdown and shutdown of production. In addition, since the beginning of the winter heating season, prophase rumors about the lack of natural gas supply have not been confirmed, because of the lack of gas parking, production restrictions are very limited. According to the statistics of China Fertilizer Network, the overall start-up rate of large-scale compound fertilizer enterprises in China is more than 44%, and the weekly ratio has increased by about 4%. Therefore, the gradual recovery of production in enterprises has played an important role in the supply of supply and price stability.

In summary, the weakness of urea and monoammonium market once again makes the following winter storage market in trouble. The enterprise's bid determination and the distributor's confidence in getting the goods are particularly insufficient. In the short term, the winter storage market of compound fertilizer is still flat.